Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. There was a brief moment when it looked liked GOP Rep. Martha McSally had pulled even with or even slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, but that appears to have dissipated. The vast majority of the latest data show Sinema with a…
Please refer to the Oct. 26 issue for summaries of every competitive House race on our ratings chart. The following are districts with news, analysis, or polling within the last week.
California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. There’s some still some conflicting…
By Ryan Matsumoto
Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.
Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s…
Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead.
During the endgame,…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative.
With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating…
Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election.
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe…
Arizona’s 1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected 51%). Trump 48%. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers is running a serious campaign, won a competitive primary, and has no problem tying herself to the President. But her fundraising has been modest and Rogers hasn’t received much outside help against…
