Archive
Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet
December 21, 2018 · 8:30 AM EST
I love elections, particularly congressional races, but I’m just not in a hurry to jump to 2020. And I’m completely fine with holding off on releasing our race ratings until next year.
If I didn’t like elections, I would probably need to take a long look at doing something else with my life,…
House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020
December 20, 2018 · 9:30 AM EST
We already know the Democratic presidential primary is going to be crowded and crazy as a few dozen candidates battle for the right to take on President Donald Trump.
But at least a handful of 2020 House primaries are also on the horizon for Democrats as the party fights over ideology and loyalty.…
North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election
December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST
Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.
Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide…
Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update
December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST
Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).
Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR…
2019 Gubernatorial Overview: There’s No Off Year in Three States
December 14, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST
Democrats went into the 2018 cycle with just 16 governors nationwide, and came out with 23. After next year’s elections, Democrats have a longshot opportunity to occupy half of the country’s governorships.
Results for the midterms are still being certified—and in at least one case, being…
Expect Record Turnout in 2020
December 13, 2018 · 2:53 PM EST
With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.
According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent of the…
Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?
December 12, 2018 · 3:37 PM EST
Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals.
According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout…
The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election
December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST
When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.
I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower seeds and plenty of…
Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics
November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST
Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation.
Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential…
