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Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2025 · 10:49 PM EDT

One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek re-election to Arizona’s 1st District. 

After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of…

2026 House Ratings (October 1, 2025)

October 1, 2025 · 10:48 PM EDT

Podcast Episode 56: Midterms, NFL, Kentucky Derby w/ Steve Kornacki of NBC News

October 1, 2025 · 7:20 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Steve Kornacki of NBC News take a fresh look at the battle for the House majority with a little more than a year before the midterm elections, analyze the latest numbers in the race for governor in New Jersey this year and talk about how Steve went from covering…

Tennessee 7 Special: Upset in the Making?

by Nathaniel Rakich September 30, 2025 · 3:04 PM EDT

Kansas’ 4th District. Montana’s At-Large district. Georgia’s 6th District. South Carolina’s 5th District. Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat. Pennsylvania’s 18th District. Arizona’s 8th District.

Throughout 2017 and into early 2018, election watchers kept seeing the same movie over and over: Special…

A Detailed Analysis of Missouri’s New Congressional Map

by Nathaniel Rakich September 29, 2025 · 9:41 AM EDT

The unprecedented redistricting arms race of 2025 continues apace. After Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional map with the goal of flipping from three to five House seats, California Democrats voted to place their own new congressional map before voters this November that would do…

2026 House Ratings (September 29, 2025)

September 29, 2025 · 9:40 AM EDT

Iowa Senate: Democrats Reach for Open Seat

by Jacob Rubashkin September 25, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

One of the final pieces of the Senate battleground fell into place last month when GOP Sen. Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election to a third term in Iowa.

Ernst’s decision was not entirely surprising. The retired Army lieutenant colonel had a difficult 2025, dealing with the backlash…

Michigan 7: Longing for Lansing

by Jacob Rubashkin September 25, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

When Vice President JD Vance traveled to Michigan earlier this month, he chose a welding plant in Michigan’s 7th District as his backdrop. It was a clear indicator of just how important the Lansing-area swing seat is to the fight for the House majority in 2026.

The 7th is currently held by…

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 7th District. Democrat Adelita Grijalva won the special general election on Tuesday, 69-30 percent over Republican Daniel Butierez, in the race to replace her late father. Even with some votes still being counted, the result is yet another overperformance for Democrats in special…

2026 House Ratings (September 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025 · 2:26 PM EDT