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Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

by Stuart Rothenberg April 18, 2014 · 11:23 AM EDT

When I read the New York Times piece, “Sebelius Said to Weigh Run for Kansas Senate Seat,” I had two very different reactions.

First, I figured that national Democrats had to be encouraged that former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, a once-popular two-term governor of…

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated…

Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 14, 2014 · 12:54 PM EDT

Democrats plan to turn out thousands of African-American voters this fall, in an effort to hold the Senate majority. The challenge is that some of them aren’t yet registered to vote.

Which begs the question, after opportunities to elect and re-elect the first black president, why would an…

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

by Stuart Rothenberg April 11, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

So far, there is precious little evidence that Democrats have changed the trajectory of the 2014 midterm elections, reinforcing our earlier assessment that Democrats have little or no chance of taking back the House in November.

President Barack Obama’s weak job approval numbers, questions…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama - Indiana

April 11, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat). June 3 primary, July 15 runoff.
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Among those running are state Sen. Scott Beason, state Rep. Paul DeMarco, businessman Will Brooke and former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer. From Beason’s website: “As Establishment…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa - Oklahoma

April 11, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Iowa (2R, 2D). June 3 primary. If no candidate receives 35 percent in the primary, party conventions pick the nominees.
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). The Democratic field includes former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon, former state Sen. Swati Dandekar and…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Oregon - Wyoming

April 11, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

Oregon (1R, 4D). May 20 primary.
OR 5 (Schrader, D). Republicans hope that Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith can unseat incumbent Kurt Schrader, who drew only 53 percent in 2012 against an underfunded challenger. But this is only a Republican long-shot.

Pennsylvania (13R, 5D). May 20…

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2014 · 9:59 AM EDT

While some observers of politics apparently are only interested in statistical models that predict electoral outcomes, I have always thought that candidates matter — both during campaigns and, particularly, when the victorious arrive in Washington, D.C.

In fact I have found interviewing…

GOP Congressman Skips Incumbent Label on California Ballot

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2014 · 10:04 AM EDT

California Republican David Valadao is running for re-election to the 21st District — but you wouldn’t know he’s the incumbent from his ballot designation.

In the Golden State, candidates can choose a short description to accompany their name on the primary and general election ballots. The…