Archive

When Birth Certificates and Senate Races Clash

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 29, 2014 · 10:51 AM EDT

Democrats have attacked a trio of Republican Senate candidates for not being born in the states they seek to represent. While the issue could matter in a close race, there are four dozen senators who prove that birthplace isn’t necessarily a stumbling block to getting elected.

Just more than…

Rating New York’s 11th District and One of My Worst Mistakes as a Political Handicapper

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2014 · 3:12 PM EDT

New York Rep. Michael Grimm’s arrest reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper.

In May 2006, the FBI raided Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson’s offices and home on suspicion of corruption. I assumed that since agents found $90,000 cash wrapped in aluminum foil in the…

North Carolina: Primary Purpose

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

With the Senate majority hanging in the balance, the Republican primary in North Carolina has gained national attention. But a handful of House primaries in the Tar Heel State are also important including open seats in safe districts, a long-time incumbent facing a challenge, and a former…

Wisconsin 6: Open Seat B’gosh

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 2:59 PM EDT

Republicans are retiring from competitive congressional districts but this might be the wrong cycle for Democrats to take advantage of the opportunities.

The latest Member to announce his retirement is GOP Rep. Tom Petri of Wisconsin’s 6th District. President Barack Obama won the district…

Arkansas Senate: Shooting Down Strawmen

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 2:58 PM EDT

Reports of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s political death are greatly exaggerated, argue some Democratic operatives and more than a few journalists.

The only problem with that view is that Pryor’s obituary has not yet been written by any serious observer or handicapper. And while arguing over…

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

by Stuart Rothenberg April 25, 2014 · 9:49 AM EDT

Stop the presses!

The Charleston Gazette, West Virginia’s largest newspaper, has endorsed both Democratic Senate hopeful Natalie Tennant and Rep. Nick J. Rahall II, a Democrat in the 3rd District.

Tennant will face Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., in November in an open-seat contest, while…

Obama’s Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

by Stuart Rothenberg April 24, 2014 · 9:52 AM EDT

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this year’s elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They aren’t.

But foreign policy could have an indirect yet significant impact on the midterm elections, making…

Why TV Airtime Reservations Are More Important Than Ever

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 23, 2014 · 11:35 AM EDT

It’s time to pay more attention to television ad reservations; they have become another critical way party strategists communicate without coordinating under campaign finance laws.

Not too many cycles ago, political reporters rightly handled television ad reservations loosely and delicately as…

Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

by Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2014 · 12:34 PM EDT

Rarely has so much been made of so little.

I ought to know, since I am in the middle of the to-do.

During the past weekend’s edition of CNN’s State of the Union, I happened to suggest that Republican Rep. Cory Gardner might upset incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in the Colorado Senate…