Archive

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

by Stuart Rothenberg March 19, 2014 · 10:05 AM EDT

Democratic memos about the party’s optimistic prospects in Florida’s 2nd district never die. They simply fade away until the next election cycle, when a new one miraculously surfaces.

This cycle, the memo is from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, and it insists that the Democratic nominee for…

Road Gets Tougher for Democratic Majority in the Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

The landscape that defines the fight for the Senate continues to shift in a way that benefits Republicans, though it isn’t yet clear how fully they can take advantage of the opportunity.

President Barack Obama’s job ratings continue to range from mediocre to troubling, and a GOP recruiting…

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Alabama - Kansas

March 14, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA -- Jeff Sessions (R), elected 1996 (52%), 2002 (59%) and 2008 (63%). April 4 filing deadline, June 3 primary, July 15 runoff. The last Democratic Senate nominee to win over 40 percent of the vote in Alabama was Roger Bedford in 1996 (45.5 percent). Sessions’ December 31 FEC report showed…

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Kentucky - New Mexico

March 14, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%). May 20 primary. Senate Minority Leader McConnell continues to fight a two-front war in his effort to win a sixth term. Primary challenger Matt Bevin has personal resources (he put $600,000 into…

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) North Carolina - Wyoming

by Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA -- Kay Hagan (D), elected 2008 (53%). May 6 primary, July 15 runoff. Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan had to expect a serious challenge. State House Speaker Thom Tillis is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. Physician Greg Brannon (an OB/GYN) is running as…

Jolly Wins Special, Florida’s 13th Starts as Lean Republican for Midterm

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2014 · 10:16 PM EDT

Republican David Jolly eked out a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink to keep the late congressman Bill Young’s seat in the GOP column. Polls had shown the race close, but most observers expected Sink, who lost the governor’s race narrowly in 2010, to defeat Jolly by two or three percentage…

2014 House Ratings (March 11, 2014)

March 11, 2014 · 10:15 PM EDT

Why Polls Still Show Democrats With Higher Marks Than Republicans

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

Political brands are important. If a candidate or political party has a damaged political brand, it’s harder for them to sell themselves to voters. But sometimes a poll’s top lines can be deceiving, so you need to look a little below the surface to understand what is going on.

Everyone knows…

Why Florida’s 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 10, 2014 · 10:31 PM EDT

After almost five months and more than $9 million in campaign spending, neither Democrat Alex Sink nor Republican David Jolly has a clear upper-hand in the final hours before Tuesday’s special election in Florida’s 13th District.

Even though polling continues to show a neck-and-neck race, many…