Archive

Jesse Ferguson Lives to Fight Another Day

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2014 · 8:30 AM EST

The lede almost writes itself: One year ago, Jesse Ferguson never would have thought beating cancer would be easier than defeating Republicans in the House. But that’s just not how the Democratic operative does business.

As director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s…

Election Eve Update: Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2014 · 4:39 PM EST

Here are a ratings changes in a handful of competitive gubernatorial contests on the day before the election. 

Arkansas Governor. After months of optimism from Democrats about their ability to re-elect Sen. Mark Pryor (D) and elect former Rep. Mike Ross (D) as governor, it’s clear that both men…

Election Eve Update: House Republicans on Edge of Good, Great Election Night

November 3, 2014 · 12:37 PM EST

The only question in the House is the size of the Republican gains. Our range continues to be a gain of 5-12 seats for the GOP, but it’s possible that the party exceeds that.

GOP strategists are trying to tamp down expectations by saying that gains in the teens would require winning Obama…

Election Eve Update: GOP Prospects Continue to Improve in the Senate

November 3, 2014 · 12:27 PM EST

The playing field of competitive Senate races hasn’t changed, but Republican chances to win those seats has improved in the last couple of days.

Since our latest ratings changes on Wednesday, GOP prospects have improved in Colorado and Iowa, making the path to a net gain of at least six seats,…

Ratings Change in Kentucky Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 2:50 PM EDT

One of the most watched Senate races of 2014 is over. Take it off your list of states that could fall either way on Tuesday.

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has opened up a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, secretary of state of the Bluegrass State, ensuring…

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 10:52 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S. Truman.

Truman lost a…

Think more competitive House races would help? They might actually make things worse.

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 31, 2014 · 2:34 PM EDT

Here’s the rare idea about which both Democrats and Republicans agree: Way too few members of Congress emerge from competitive House races — and it’s causing problems.

“Put congressional reform atop the national agenda,” wrote David Brooks recently. “More states could have open primaries.…

A Nerve-Wracking Finish for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg October 30, 2014 · 3:34 PM EDT

How big of a year is this going to be for Republicans? It’s still hard to tell, one week before voters go to the polls for the midterm elections.

But it could be bigger than you think.

Republicans have a plethora of House and Senate opportunities, and given President Barack Obama’s standing…