Four years ago, Democrats and Republicans treated New Jersey’s gubernatorial race as an afterthought to the flashier contest in Virginia. But after Donald Trump came close to flipping the state in 2024, nobody is overlooking New Jersey this year — especially not the state’s most ambitious…
Jacob Rubashkin and Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report w/ Amy Walter talk through the potential for a Democratic upset in the special election for Florida's 6th District, as well as what we'll learn from the outcome there and in Florida's 1st District. The episode also touches on upcoming…
A special election in Central Florida to fill National Security Advisor Michael Waltz’s congressional seat is attracting a crush of national spending and attention in its final week.
Republicans remain favored to hold Florida’s 6th Congressional District, albeit by a narrower margin than the…
Colorado’s 8th District is one of America’s newest House seats but it has already established itself as one of the most competitive. Just one of two districts where the winning candidate’s margin of victory was less than 1 percent in both 2022 and 2024, the 8th is a crucial step in Democrats’ path…
In their quest to flip three seats and reclaim the House majority, Democrats are primarily focused on GOP incumbents in seats where Kamala Harris finished ahead of Donald Trump and seats where Trump won narrowly.
But one of the party’s top targets is neither of those things. Iowa’s 1st District…
Arizona’s 7th District Special. Gov. Katie Hobbs scheduled a July 15 primary and September 23 special election to replace the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva. No major candidates have announced their intention to run yet, but state Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is considering a bid. Grijalva’s daughter,…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and James Downs of National Journal’s Hotline analyze the fight for the House majority, the 10 key Toss-up races, and some potential surprise races in places that haven’t been competitive for years. The episode also includes Jacob’s recent purchase of a political…
New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will not run for a fourth term, complicating her party’s already difficult path back to the Senate majority next year.
While New Hampshire was already on the Senate battleground, Shaheen’s decision could set off a prolonged and difficult primary between…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
The GOP majority in the House is at risk and will likely be the most consequential battle in 2026, while Senate Republicans might be insulated from a midterm backlash.
Typically, midterm elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the…
Alabama.
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt), Shomari Figures, D, elected 55%. Harris 54%. There’s little appetite among Republicans to take on Figures unless court decisions allow Alabama to redraw its congressional map. Solid Democratic.
Alaska.
At-Large, Nick Begich, R,…
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