Archive

First House Ratings of the 2026 Cycle

March 7, 2025 · 2:25 PM EST

Toss-up
AZ 6 (Ciscomani, R)
CA 13 (Gray, D)
CA 45 (Tran, D)
CO 8 (Evans, R)
IA 1 (Miller-Meeks, R)
MI 7 (Barrett, R)
NC 1 (Davis, D)
NY 17 (Lawler, R)
PA 7 (Mackenzie, R)
VA 2 (Kiggans, R)

Tilt Democratic
CA 47 (Min, D)
ME 2 (Golden, D)
MI 8 (McDonald Rivet, D)
NM 2 (Vasquez, D)
NY 4 (Gillen, D)…

Podcast Episode 41: Minnesota Senate, Governor, 2nd District w/ Briana Bierschbach of Star-Tribune

February 28, 2025 · 11:00 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Briana Bierschbach of the Minnesota Star-Tribune analyze the fight for the Minnesota Senate seat left behind by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, talk about whether DFL Gov. Tim Walz will seek a historic third term and look ahead to who might run for Rep.…

Kentucky Senate: Life After McConnell

by Jacob Rubashkin February 20, 2025 · 3:10 PM EST

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he would not seek an eighth term in office was not a surprise. But the decision by the longest serving Senate leader in American history nonetheless caps an era of politics defined by the master tactician, who reshaped the federal judiciary and…

Michigan Senate: Open for Candidates

by Jacob Rubashkin February 20, 2025 · 2:30 PM EST

Michigan voters aren’t going to get much of a break. After being in the spotlight with competitive presidential and Senate races in 2024, the Wolverine State is set to host one of the most important Senate races in 2026.

Sen. Gary Peters upended Michigan politics when he made a surprise…

New York 21 Special: Delayed Opportunity

by Jacob Rubashkin February 20, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

When New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is ultimately confirmed as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, voters in the Empire State’s 21st District will elect a new representative for the first time in a decade.

The special election to replace the rising GOP star may also develop into…

Report Shorts (Feb. 20, 2025)

February 20, 2025 · 2:28 PM EST

Arizona’s 1st District. Former broadcast journalist Marlene Galan-Woods was spotted at a Capitol Hill restaurant by National Journal’s James Downs, fueling speculation that she might challenge GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert again. She finished a close third in the 2024 Democratic primary. And Schweikert…

Minnesota Senate: Smith Decision Creates Open Seat

February 13, 2025 · 2:24 PM EST

DFL Sen. Tina Smith announced Thursday that she won’t seek re-election in 2026, creating an open seat that could become more competitive next year. 

While Republicans are expressing initial confidence in the takeover opportunity, the GOP’s track record in Minnesota is not good. Republicans have…