Inside Elections

2020 Senate Ratings (August 28, 2019)

August 28, 2019 · 11:26 AM EDT

Wisconsin 7: Duffy’s Seat Remains Solid Republican for Now

by Leah Askarinam August 26, 2019 · 12:11 PM EDT

GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin will resign in September, he announced Monday. His decision will likely prompt a special election, but Republicans are the early favorites to hold the seat.

“Recently, we’ve learned that our baby, due in late October, will need even more love, time, and attention…

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2019 · 8:55 AM EDT

President Donald Trump has forgotten who holds the power within the Republican Party.

There’s a perception that the National Rifle Association has an impenetrable lock on base Republican voters and thus is holding GOP members of Congress captive. But Trump is the one person who has the capital…

Maine Senate: Democrats Try to Crack Collins’ Code

by Leah Askarinam August 16, 2019 · 2:30 PM EDT

Motivated by Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, Democratic activists throughout the country have targeted dozens of congressional Republicans for defeat, 32 of whom lost their jobs in the 2018 midterms. But heading into 2020, nobody has caught Democrats’ attention quite like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. …

North Carolina 9: Back to the Future

by Leah Askarinam August 16, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

It might be August of the off-year, and presidential candidates are getting virtually all of the attention, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to ignore House elections.

North Carolina’s 9th District is holding a unique “redo” election Sept. 10, after the state Board of Elections found irregularities…

House Open Seat Overview

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 16, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

After a flurry of House retirement announcements over the last few weeks, it’s tough to keep them all straight. So here’s a brief rundown of the current slate of open seats including our current race rating. 

Don’t forget, we’re still well below the average number of retirements for a cycle. Going…

2020 House Ratings (August 16, 2019)

August 16, 2019 · 2:27 PM EDT

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

by Stuart Rothenberg August 15, 2019 · 9:08 AM EDT

For all the talk about why Donald Trump was elected president while losing the popular vote and how he could win again, one of the least discussed results of the 2016 election offers valuable lessons for Democrats.

An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other…

Rating Update: Marchant Seat Already Considered Competitive

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 5, 2019 · 12:04 PM EDT

Another day, another Republican retirement. 

It might seem like there’s a flood of Members announcing they will not seek re-election, but we’re still not close to historical levels. And the location of the open seats matters more than the timing.

It's remarkable that Rep. Kenny Marchant is the…

Rating Change: Hurd Retirement Moves Texas District to Democratic Category

by Leah Askarinam August 2, 2019 · 1:17 AM EDT

Will Hurd of Texas has been considered one of Republicans’ strongest incumbents. He proved that point in 2018, when he was one of just three Republicans to win re-election in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.

But Hurd, who founded a cybersecurity firm before running for Congress,…