Inside Elections

2022 Senate Ratings (January 25, 2021)

January 25, 2021 · 11:56 AM EST

Virginia Governor: Republican Rebound?

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:30 PM EST

It doesn’t have the same pomp and circumstance as the presidential inauguration, but the Virginia gubernatorial election is the next big political event on the docket. As one of only two states electing a governor in 2021 (New Jersey is the other), all eyes often turn to Virginia at the beginning…

New Mexico 1: The Land of a Special Election

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

Rep. Deb Haaland made history in 2018 as one of the first two Native American women ever to be elected to Congress. In 2021, she’ll likely make history again as the first ever Native American cabinet secretary. The Democratic congresswoman from New Mexico’s 1st District has been nominated by…

Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Senate Elections

January 22, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats’ quest to take back the Senate paid off this cycle, thanks in no small part to a slate of strong candidates. The unique benefit provided by these recruits, as well as the value of other 2020 Senate contenders, can be quantified using Vote Above Replacement (VAR). And it provides depth to…

Louisiana 2 Special: The Next New Member

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2021 · 2:27 PM EST

The special election to succeed Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond in Louisiana’s 2nd District has come into focus as the wide field of potential candidates narrows and national figures turn their attention to what may be the first special election of the Biden era.

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards…

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 22, 2021 · 9:09 AM EST

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.

Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does control…

Capitol Invasion Marred Hope of “Peaceful Transfer of Power”

by Jacob Rubashkin January 14, 2021 · 11:19 AM EST

At the final presidential debate of 2016, moderator Chris Wallace asked then-candidate Donald Trump if he would commit to abide by “one of the prides of this country...the peaceful transition of power.”

Trump responded, “I'll keep you in suspense, okay?”

More than four years later, after a…

Wrestling With the Mob

January 8, 2021 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The invasion of the U.S. Capitol will live forever in America’s history. One of the core problems is that the country is so divided that people do not agree on the size of the stain.

The violent attempt to prevent Congress from ratifying Joe Biden’s…

2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): Control is On the Line, Again

January 8, 2021 · 2:29 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Even before voters in Georgia cast their ballots, it was clear that the fight for the Senate would continue on to the 2022 cycle. No matter who won the runoff races, one party was going to control the chamber by a slim majority. But the Democrats’ victories…

2022 Senate Overview (January 8, 2021): Alabama - Georgia

January 8, 2021 · 2:28 PM EST

ALABAMA. Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%), 2016 (64%). The only real question is whether the 86-year-old senator runs for a seventh term. Shelby was first elected as a Democrat in President Ronald Reagan’s second midterm election and later…