Archive

Michigan Senate: The Race to Succeed Stabenow Is On

by Erin Covey January 5, 2023 · 11:25 AM EST

After serving in the Senate for the past 22 years, Debbie Stabenow announced this morning that she won’t seek re-election in 2024. The race to succeed the Democratic senator is guaranteed to draw serious attention and resources from both parties.

The Democratic Party has a deep bench in the Great…

Virginia 4 Special: McClellan Poised for History

by Jacob Rubashkin December 22, 2022 · 11:00 AM EST

The first House race of the 2024 cycle is well underway — and for all intents and purposes may already be over.

On Tuesday, Democrats in Virginia’s 4th District chose state Sen. Jennifer McClellan as their nominee in the Feb. 21 special election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin. She…

New York 4: Recipe for a GOP Upset

by Jacob Rubashkin December 16, 2022 · 2:30 PM EST

Republicans entered the midterms with high hopes of taking back Congress. And while the GOP did win back the House of Representatives, they did so in underwhelming fashion, picking up just nine House seats after anticipating more significant gains.

But while the “Red Wave” fizzled out in most…

Colorado 8: Democrats Win an Uphill Race

by Erin Covey December 16, 2022 · 2:29 PM EST

The battle for control of Colorado’s 8th District had ramifications far beyond 2022 — it established the political identity of a brand new congressional seat.

In a midterm cycle where Republicans should have had an edge, Democrats narrowly won this battleground district centered in the growing…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Senate Elections

by Bradley Wascher December 16, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022…

Georgia Senate Runoff: How Warnock Won

by Ryan Matsumoto December 16, 2022 · 2:27 PM EST

After two decades of GOP dominance, Georgia has now voted for Democratic senators three times in the past two years, most recently in this month’s runoff election. How did it happen?

A handful of key trends propelled Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to victory in the Senate runoff. The Democratic…

The 6,670-Vote Majority: How Republicans Barely Won the House

by Jacob Rubashkin December 13, 2022 · 12:35 PM EST

Heading into the 2022 midterms, Republicans were confident that a Red Wave would sweep them back into power in Congress.

Ultimately, not only did a Red Wave fail to materialize, but Republicans barely cleared the lowest of bars they had set for themselves at the beginning of the cycle: winning…

Virginia 4 Special: Running in the River City

by Erin Covey December 12, 2022 · 2:00 PM EST

Only the third Black member of Congress to be elected from Virginia, the late Rep. Donald McEachin left a long legacy of public service after representing the Richmond area in Congress and the Virginia state Legislature since the mid-1990s. In the weeks following the congressman’s death, several…

Arizona Senate: Sinema’s Decision Complicates 2024 Race

by Erin Covey December 9, 2022 · 11:00 AM EST

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona.

Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new…

House Results: A Good Cycle for Incumbents

by Erin Covey December 2, 2022 · 2:30 PM EST

Democratic Members of Congress were bracing themselves for disaster. Running in a year marked by economic uncertainty — and widespread frustration with the direction that the country was heading in — incumbents in the party that controlled the federal government expected significant losses.

But…