Inside Elections

By Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

As Republicans face down a national environment and unpopular president that imperils their hold on the House — and increasingly, the Senate — the party has looked to gubernatorial races as an opportunity to make the best of an otherwise challenging cycle.

Over the past decade, Democrats have picked up a net of eight governorships. But many of their strongest incumbents, including those who flipped states in 2018 such as Kansas’ Laura Kelly, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Wisconsin’s Tony Evers, are headed for the exits. Republicans hope to capitalize on those open seat opportunities to reclaim lost ground, but are unlikely to seriously contest the biggest Rust Belt prize in Pennsylvania, which is now rated Solid Democratic.

For Democrats, the 2026 midterms represent a chance to correct for the close calls and mistakes of 2018 and 2022, when opportunities in states such as Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Alaska slipped through their grasp. All four look more competitive today than earlier in the year and saw ratings changes toward Democrats.

Still, a few lofty targets look out of reach. Texas and Florida are too expensive, too Republican, and the GOP nominees too well-funded, to see a Democratic breakthrough at this point. But if the cycle continues to deteriorate for Republicans, no amount of money might keep Texas Gov. Greg Abbott or Florida Rep. Byron Donalds from a competitive race.

It's been rough sledding for a…