Inside Elections

When Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines dropped his re-election bid at the last minute earlier this year, he injected some intrigue to a sleepy contest. For a moment, the race looked poised to crash the Senate battleground.

But a new poll obtained by Inside Elections shows Republicans remain favored to hold onto the open seat, despite a worsening national political environment for the GOP and a well-funded independent candidate in the race.

A June 23-24 poll conducted by GrayHouse, a Republican polling firm with no client in the race, found Republican Kurt Alme leading the field with 41 percent, followed by Democrat Alani Bankhead with 25 percent and independent Seth Bodnar with 17 percent. Libertarian Kyle Austin took 3 percent.

Alme, a former US Attorney and Daines’ handpicked successor, is untested as a candidate, and his sudden elevation and avoidance of a primary ruffled some local feathers even as national strategists appreciated the lack of a messy primary. Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, has support from some of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including former Sens. Jon Tester and Max Baucus.

Democrats have had some success in backing independent candidates running in Republican states: Nebraska’s Dan Osborn and Utah’s Evan McMullin turned no-shot contests into competitive races in 2024 and 2022. 

But Montana’s Democratic rank-and-file begin the general election reluctant to back Bodnar, a former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar.…