North Carolina Senate: Tar Heel Target
It’s been 18 years since a Democrat won a Senate race in North Carolina. Even so, the Tar Heel State is the best chance Democrats have at flipping a seat next year — a clear sign of the difficult map facing Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his caucus.
But there’s at least one reason for Democratic optimism heading into next year, and his name is Roy Cooper.
The former governor and longtime mainstay of North Carolina politics was one of the most heavily recruited candidates of this election cycle, and his entrance gives Democrats a proven fundraiser and vote-getter who held onto his statewide offices even as Republicans won at the top of the ticket.
Now he’ll face his biggest challenge yet, against a candidate hand-picked by President Donald Trump: a fellow son of rural North Carolina, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
The Lay of the Land
Democrats have struggled to win federal races in North Carolina even as they find regular success in downballot contests. Barack Obama was the last Democrat to carry the Tar Heel State in a presidential election, in 2008, by just 0.3 percentage points. Since then, the Republican nominee has won by between 1 and 3 points — most recently, Trump outpaced Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points, 51-48 percent.
It’s a similarly bleak picture for Senate Democrats, who have failed to win a race in North Carolina since 2008 despite several close calls. In 2022,…
