Senate News & Analysis

Misleading Senate Ad Uses Out-of-Context Quotes to Attack Opponent

by Jacob Rubashkin September 10, 2020 · 11:01 AM EDT

Party operatives playing fast and loose with the facts is commonplace in campaign ads, but a recent TV spot in the Kansas Senate race is stretching the norms.

A recent ad from Rep. Roger Marshall, the GOP nominee, is intended to paint Marshall’s opponent, state Sen. Barbara Bollier, as a…

Trump Needs a Convention Bounce

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 1, 2020 · 10:25 AM EDT

Whether you believe in convention bounces or not, President Donald Trump and the Republicans need one to salvage the elections this fall.

On the current trajectory, former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the White House and Democrats are more likely than not to take control of the…

Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2020 · 8:39 AM EDT

When Mississippi Rep. Mike Espy took the stage at the 1988 Democratic National Convention, he was a rising star casting a vision for a New South. Thirty-two years later, Espy believes his state is finally ready to turn the page and elect him to the U.S. Senate.

Less than two…

The Election in the Mirror Is Closer Than It Appears

August 21, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

This election cycle, and even just this year, has been filled with multiple historic events: the impeachment of a president, a global pandemic, near economic collapse, a national conversation about racism in America, and the first Black woman on a presidential ticket. Through…

Senate Report Shorts (August 21, 2020)

August 21, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). The senator was part of the Democrats’ primetime lineup on the first night of their national convention, further evidence that Jones is not shying away from his partisan label. Even though Trump should win Alabama…

Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 11, 2020 · 8:31 AM EDT

The 2020 elections are still more than two months away, but I’ve…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Democrats Poised to Control the Senate

July 10, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The Senate has been in play for at least nine months, but Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly in the last few weeks. 

As Joe Biden has grown a significant lead over President Donald Trump in the race…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Alabama - Kansas

July 10, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). July 14 GOP Runoff (was March 31). Republicans will finally select their nominee next week in the runoff between former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville (who finished first in the primary with 33 percent) and former Sen. Jeff Sessions (who was…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Kentucky - New Mexico

July 10, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). A sleepy Democratic primary victory by veteran Amy McGrath turned into a nationally-watched affair as state Rep. Charles Booker surged in the final weeks with endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep.…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): North Carolina - Wyoming

July 10, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The good news for Tillis is that he’s been consistently locked in a competitive race in a presidential battleground state that Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016, and the president has been competitive with Biden for most of the cycle. The…