Senate News & Analysis

IE Strategy Borders on Art Form

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 8, 2012 · 10:32 AM EDT

Today’s “independent expenditure” isn’t as independent as you might think.

As this fall’s battle for the House and Senate comes into focus, party strategists on both sides of the aisle can, and often do, communicate, even though there is a “wall” separating the official side of the parties’…

New Mexico: Senate Race Set, Grisham Wins Three-Way Primary

by Jessica Taylor June 6, 2012 · 11:57 AM EDT

The Republican candidate that cries “conservative” the loudest doesn’t always win the primary.

Child care center owner Greg Sowards, who had the support of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), tried to run to the right of Heather Wilson but the former congresswoman prevailed with almost 70 percent of the…

Just How Competitive Is the Ohio Senate Race?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 25, 2012 · 9:21 AM EDT

Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.

But the Senate race in Ohio…

Texas Senate: Can Dewhurst Hit 50 Percent in Primary?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 24, 2012 · 1:56 PM EDT

A new Public Policy Polling survey confirms what I am hearing elsewhere: Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is close – but still short – of getting more than 50 percent of the vote in Texas’ May 29 Republican Senate primary, which would allow him to avoid a runoff.

The…

Senate Control Remains a 50/50 Matter

by Stuart Rothenberg May 18, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The big news over the past three months in the fight for the Senate undoubtedly was Maine Senator Olympia Snowe’s retirement, and even GOP partisans will tell you that surprise announcement threw a monkey wrench into their plans to take over the Senate in November.

But with signs…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Arizona - Michigan

May 18, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

ARIZONA – Open; Jon Kyl (R), not seeking reelection. August 28 primary.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances to play offense in this open seat, basing their hopes on a strong recruit in former U.S. Surgeon General (under George W. Bush) Richard Carmona, has a clear primary field.…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Minnesota - Ohio

May 18, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

MINNESOTA – Amy Klobuchar (D), elected 2006 (58%). August 14 primary . 

Klobuchar is an excellent politician, very popular, and had $5.2 million in the bank on March 31. Pete Hegseth (R), executive director of Vets for Freedom, had $130,000. St. Bonifacius City Councilman Joe Arwood had $17…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Pennsylvania - Wyoming

May 18, 2012 · 1:57 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA – Bob Casey (D), elected 2006 (59%).

The party-endorsed candidate, businessman Steve Welch, was knocked off in the April GOP primary by wealthy retired coal company executive Tom Smith, who pumped personal money into the race. Sen. Casey had $5.3 million in the bank on April 4…

Nebraska Senate: Republicans Still Favored, Just With Unexpected Nominee

by Jessica Taylor May 16, 2012 · 1:07 PM EDT


In the end, it was neither the establishment candidate nor the anti-establishment candidate who can claim victory in the GOP Senate primary in Nebraska.

State Sen. Deb Fischer took 41 percent of the vote on Tuesday to win the Republican nomination and will face former Sen.…

Indiana Primaries: Lugar Loses, House Races Come Into Focus

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

To loyal readers of the Rothenberg Political Report, Sen. Richard Lugar’s primary loss is not a surprise.

“Lugar is a highly-respected moderate conservative with a reputation of being willing to work across the partisan aisle to get things done. But in the current political environment, experience is overrated…