House News & Analysis

11 Things I Think I Think After the Kansas 4 Special Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 12, 2017 · 11:45 AM EDT

After a few months in the electoral desert, we finally have election results to digest from a competitive race, albeit an unexpected one.

State Treasurer Ron Estes pulled out a 53-46 percent victory to keep the 4th District of Kansas in Republican hands. The 7-point margin is shocking…

Georgia 6 Special: Red Alert In Suburban District

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2017 · 2:56 PM EDT

It’s not a surprise that the special election to replace Health & Human Services Secretary Tom Price is competitive considering Donald Trump’s underperformance in the Atlanta suburbs. But the fact that Democrats have a reasonable chance to score an upset on April 18 is still remarkable.

In search of an…

Reason for Democratic Optimism, But Health Care Won’t be Enough

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2017 · 2:55 PM EDT

From the women’s marches to town hall protests, Democrats were feeling emboldened about the next elections even before Republicans fumbled their attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Democratic optimism grew (as well as media comparisons to a certain previous midterm election involving health care) as polling revealed that the…

Texas 16: Yes, A Safe Democratic Seat in Texas

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2017 · 2:54 PM EDT

It’s hard to remember the last time Democrats won a statewide race in Texas, but there are pockets of Democratic voters in the Lone Star State. 

Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s run for the Senate against Republican Ted Cruz opens up the El Paso-based 16th District in West Texas. It’s not…

Kansas 4 Special: Not So Solid for Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2017 · 2:53 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, Republicans identified a special election problem in the Atlanta suburbs and proceeded to spend a few million dollars on television ads in Georgia’s 6th District. But now the special election in 4th District of Kansas is causing some headaches in the final days. 

Unlike the Georgia…

So Much for Deal Making

by Stuart Rothenberg April 5, 2017 · 9:20 AM EDT

It seemed logical. But so far it hasn’t happened.

Last year, many political observers were suggesting that new political leadership in the nation’s capital could well usher in a wave of political negotiation and compromise. No, the legislative process wouldn’t suddenly become easy, but the unadulterated partisanship that had paralyzed…

Even More Reason to Watch the House in 2018

by Stuart Rothenberg March 29, 2017 · 9:20 AM EDT

Barely ten days into the Donald Trump Administration, I wrote that the new president’s “fast start” made it likely the House of Representatives would be “in play” in 2018.

Some, I’m sure, thought that suggestion ridiculous. After all, state legislatures have generally minimized the number of competitive congressional districts…

Georgia 6 Special: Club for Growth to Air TV Ad Against Handel

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 28, 2017 · 12:00 PM EDT

Club for Growth Action is poised to air a television against initial GOP frontrunner Karen Handel beginning Wednesday in Georgia’s 6th District special election, according to a release first obtained by Inside Elections. 

It’s a $250,000 ad buy on Atlanta cable, according to a Club source, and scheduled to run…

Minnesota 1: Walz’s Gov Run Creates Vulnerable Open Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 27, 2017 · 1:30 PM EDT

It could be a rough round of midterm elections for Republicans next year but DFL Rep. Tim Walz gave them a little gift by vacating Minnesota’s 1st District in order to run for governor. 

The six-term congressman won re-election narrowly, 50.3-49.6 percent, last year in a race that…

What I Learned About Polling From a Georgia House Survey

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 27, 2017 · 10:54 AM EDT

I was initially skeptical of a recent poll in the special election for Georgia’s 6th District, not because it utilized Interactive Voice Response, or IVR, technology or because it was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm or because a Democratic candidate was leading in a Republican-leaning district. But it only…