House News & Analysis

12 Thoughts Without Even Knowing Who Won in Pennsylvania

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 14, 2018 · 12:10 AM EDT

The special election race for Pennsylvania's 18th District is too close to call, but many of the takeaways are the same, no matter if Democrat Conor Lamb or Republican Rick Saccone ultimately prevails. 

There will be plenty of hot takes and takeaways about the impact of President Donald Trump…

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans.

The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have…

Texas Primaries: Democratic Fields Come Into Focus

March 9, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

After months of speculation, the 2018 midterm elections are officially underway with initial primaries in Texas. 

There’s more evidence of a Democratic surge previously seen in Virginia and in special elections around the country, but also the reality that some of the swarm of Democratic candidates aren’t even going to…

Arizona 8 Special: Don’t Be Surprised

March 9, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Republican Rep. Trent Franks resigned his seat in the midst of #MeToo movement and he will be replaced by a woman. But the recent special election primary wasn’t exactly smooth sailing for Republicans and the electoral trend across the country over the last year points to this Arizona 8th District…

Candidate Conversation - Stelian Onufrei (R)

March 9, 2018 · 2:26 PM EST

California’s 48th District - Rating: Tilt Republican

Interview Date: Feb. 20, 2018

Date of Birth: Feb. 28, 1965; Dej, Romania

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: A lot of things would need to go right for Onufrei to win. First, he needs to finish in the top…

Candidate Conversation - Pete Stauber (R)

March 9, 2018 · 2:24 PM EST

Minnesota’s 8th District - Rating: Toss-Up

Interview Date: Feb. 14, 2018

Date of Birth: May 10, 1956; Duluth, Minn.

Education: Lake Superior State Univ. (1990)

Elected Office: St. Louis County Commission; Hermantown City Council (former) 

Current Outlook: Stauber is considered one of Republicans’ top recruits in the country. He still…

Ratings Update: Texas Primaries Narrow Democratic Fields

March 7, 2018 · 1:33 AM EST

After months of speculation, the 2018 midterm elections are officially underway with initial primaries in Texas. 

There's more evidence of a Democratic surge previously seen in Virginia and in special elections around the country, but also the reality that some of the swarm of Democratic candidates aren't even going to…

Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 6, 2018 · 8:44 AM EST

If elections and national surveys over the past year have shown us anything, it is that suburban voters could well be the key to the 2018 midterm House elections.

Turnout among minority voters and younger voters could affect the result in a district here or there, but an increase in…

Rating Change: Pennsylvania 18 Special Moves to Toss-Up

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2018 · 12:00 PM EST

Don’t say we didn’t warn you. 

“While the Pennsylvania race isn’t getting much attention now, that should change next year, considering all of the 2017 special elections eventually became national stories,” my colleague Leah Askarinam wrote in the Dec. 15 issue of Inside Elections. “By the numbers, the 18th…

Rating Change: Arizona 8 Special Gets More Vulnerable

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2018 · 9:52 AM EST

It might look like Republicans dodged a disaster in Arizona’s 8th District considering former state Sen. Steve Montenegro didn’t win Tuesday’s primary. But, as we’ve written before, Republicans seem to find new ways to make these special elections competitive, and Democrats everywhere are excited to send a message to President…