Inside Elections

Six Months from Election Day, Expect the Expected

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 7, 2020 · 2:56 PM EDT

Anything can happen in November. At least that’s what we’re supposed to say. But is it really true?

Even in the middle of a global pandemic and after a historic impeachment process, the political environment hasn’t changed dramatically over the last year and a half. The coronavirus has crippled the…

Michigan 3: Amash Exit Makes Seat Less Vulnerable

April 29, 2020 · 3:47 PM EDT

There’s no love lost between Justin Amash and House Republicans, but the Michigan congressman gave the GOP a parting gift with his run for president.

Amash’s departure from the Republican Party last year decreased the number of seats Republicans currently control in the House by one and increased the…

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress (April 29, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin April 29, 2020 · 11:03 AM EDT

Predicting election outcomes…

Illinois 14: The Underwood Overview

by Jacob Rubashkin April 23, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

The 2018 race in this wealthy Illinois district just west of Chicago was one of the fastest-moving in…

The Battle for the House, As Told Through Super PAC Ad Reservations

by Jacob Rubashkin April 17, 2020 · 10:34 AM EDT

Even though it’s not yet summer, there are windows…

Questioning My Boldest Projection for 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 13, 2020 · 8:13 AM EDT

Through all of the twists and turns of this election, I’ve been confident about one thing: record-breaking turnout. Obviously, with the spread of a pandemic, I’ve started to question my projection a bit.

I first wrote about the potential for a record-setting turnout in December 2018, and for the most…

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress (April 10, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin April 10, 2020 · 10:30 AM EDT

Predicting election outcomes can be a…

Will There be More Republican Women in the House Next Year?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2020 · 4:17 PM EDT

With just 13 women on Capitol Hill, House Republicans don’t have any room for error if they want to boost their numbers. After this year’s initial batch of primaries, however, and looking ahead at primaries to come, Republicans are at risk of simply breaking even when it comes to their…

Be Careful When Explaining House Retirements

by Bradley Wascher April 7, 2020 · 11:05 AM EDT

When now-former Rep. Mark Meadows officially resigned from Congress earlier recently, there wasn’t much shock among the Republican Party. After all, Meadows, known for leading the conservative House Freedom Caucus, had initially stated his intentions to not seek re-election, as he foresaw an increased role in the Trump Administration. 

That…