I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November?
Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and…
A disclaimer may seem like a rote few seconds in a campaign ad, but failing to follow the specific guidelines could have costly consequences for a candidate.
On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., aired a 30-second ad titled, “How Could You?” that accused Democratic…
It’s no secret that Democrats have virtually no chance of taking back the House next month, but there are a handful of districts where victory could make the rest of the night easier to swallow.
Democrats have zeroed in on a quartet of competitive Republican open seats including…
Only three times since the Civil War, as any political junkie knows, has the president’s party gained House seats in midterm elections — in 1934, 1998 and 2002. It now seems quite clear 2014 won’t be another exception to that rule.
But a year and a half ago,…
What happens in this year’s midterm elections doesn’t matter. What elected officials and party strategists think happened, will carry far more weight into the next Congress and the 2016 elections.
What if Republicans win control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House?
It will…
Republicans are likely to gain seats in the House this November, we just don’t know how many quite yet.
President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers continue to decline in a midterm election when voters will likely be open to a check-and-balance argument from Republicans. And the Democratic advantage…
After a year of campaigning, television ads, a government shutdown, and a botched rollout of HealthCare.gov, the House playing field is virtually unchanged from where it was 12 months ago.
We recently updated the Rothenberg Political Report ratings in seven House districts. Arizona’s 1st District, Maine’s 2nd District,…
There was a time, a little less than a year ago, when Democrats salivated at the thought of running against the GOP brand and demonizing Republican candidates by attacking them and their party for “shutting down the government.”
But the Republican brand has largely recovered from its low…
Republicans are at virtually no risk of losing their House majority in November, but there is a little extra pressure to win a handful of key districts in order to avoid taking a step back in the number of women in the Republican conference.
Republicans have been on…
Our House and Senate ratings continue to reflect state-level and district-level surveys, as well as the fundamentals of each contest. But as we all know, midterm elections sometimes become referenda on the sitting president. When that happens, if the electorate’s mood is angry and dissatisfied with the president’s performance,…
