Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes
May 8, 2026 · 11:35 AM EDT
The Virginia State Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ ambitious redistricting plan in the Old Dominion on Friday. The map, which was designed to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican, was approved by voters in a statewide referendum last month.
The decision is an exclamation point on a madcap week of redistricting that began with Florida passing an aggressive new GOP-drawn map and then saw Tennessee dismantle its last remaining majority-Black, Solid Democratic district.
Factoring in today’s shifts in Virginia, Inside Elections has made 12 House ratings changes this week due to redistricting, with 11 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats: five in Virginia, five in Florida, and two in Tennessee.
Following those changes, Republicans are favored to win seven more seats than they were on Monday.
Virginia
Our ratings will revert to where they were before the April 21 referendum.
1st District. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman will still face a competitive race, likely against Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, but the partisan lean of the district is again in his favor. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.
2nd District. GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ Virginia Beach-based district remains largely the same but is a bit more favorable to Republicans now. You can read a full analysis of this race in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.
5th District. GOP Rep. John McGuire is the clear favorite against likely Democratic nominee Tom Perriello following the court’s decision to restore the old map, though this district could get more competitive for Democrats. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.
6th District. GOP Rep. Ben Cline was one of the loudest critics of the redistricting referendum as it demolished his Shenandoah Valley district. Now he’ll be the favorite in this very Republican seat. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Republican.
7th District. Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman had planned to move to the new 1st District and leave a radically reconfigured 7th open for the taking. Now he’ll face a competitive re-election campaign in the perennial swing seat. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Democratic.
Florida
A full accounting of Florida’s ratings changes can be found in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections.
9th District. Democrat Darren Soto is the underdog in this reconfigured Central Florida seat that is no longer majority-Hispanic. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Republican.
14th District. Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor will be an underdog for re-election after the redraw swapped out two-thirds of her constituents and turned the district into one that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.
22nd District. Rep. Lois Frankel is leaving this district to run in the neighboring and more Democratic 23rd District. The new and radically reconfigured 22nd would have voted for Trump by a healthy margin in 2024, but for Biden in 2020. Former state Sen. Lauren Book might run here and would be a credible candidate for Democrats. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is another possibility. Move from Solid Democratic to Tilt Republican.
23rd District. Frankel is running in this redrawn seat that is now safely Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz may run in the 25th. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.
25th District. Moskowitz has indicated he’ll run in this coastal district that swung from Biden to Trump between 2020 and 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Toss-up.
Tennessee.
A full writeup of Tennessee’s new map appeared online at InsideElections.com on May 8.
5th District. Republicans went out of their way to shore up embattled Rep. Andy Ogles in his primary and general elections. Move from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.
9th District. Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen sees his majority-Black Memphis seat obliterated following the Supreme Court’s decision weakening the Voting Rights Act. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.
What’s Next
Republican state legislators across the South are contemplating what steps to take in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais vs. Louisiana, which seemed to open the door to the widespread elimination of majority-Black House seats.
In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency and canceled next week’s House primaries to give the state legislature time to draw a map intended to defeat either or both of 2nd District Rep. Troy Carter and 6th Rep. Cleo Fields, both Black Democrats. There is ongoing litigation to prevent that move.
In South Carolina, legislators have convened to discuss dismantling the Palmetto State’s remaining majority-Black seat, held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, but there’s some reluctance among the state Senate leadership to do so.
In Alabama, Republicans await a decision by a lower court that previously barred the state from changing its current map until 2032, after the next decennial census. A favorable ruling for Republicans could prompt the legislature to turn one or both of Black Democratic Reps. Terri Sewell and Shomari Figures’ districts into Republican-friendly seats.