Is a ‘Democratic Tea Party’ Brewing?
July 1, 2025 · 10:04 AM EDT
Depending on what wing of the Democratic Party you belong to, Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City last week was either a warning shot or a cautionary tale. In picking the 33-year-old state assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist, Democratic voters dealt a stinging rebuke to the party establishment. That, in turn, has led to plenty of chatter that incumbent Democratic members of Congress could be vulnerable in their own primaries next year.
But we should be cautious about drawing conclusions based on a single election, especially one as unique as the New York City mayoral race. The issues and demographics of the country’s largest city are pretty different from those of most congressional districts. And Mamdani’s main opponent, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, was a very flawed candidate (he resigned from office in the face of several sexual-harassment allegations, and he also faced criticism for his handling of COVID-19 in nursing homes).
That said, polling does show relatively high levels of dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party among self-identified Democrats. That could have contributed to Mamdani’s win, and it could also fuel some spirited primary challenges to members of Congress next year. Election analysts have actually been theorizing about a “Democratic Tea Party” movement since well before the result in New York.
According to a CNN poll from March, 72 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while 17 percent had an unfavorable view. Those are still generally positive numbers, but they’re actually pretty mediocre considering that these people are ostensibly the party’s base. By contrast, Republicans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, 86 percent to 6 percent. (Note that these numbers don’t include independents who lean toward a party.)
The Democratic Party’s current +55-point net favorability rating among its own members is similar to the Republican Party’s net favorability rating among Republicans in 2009. In an average of four CNN polls that year, the GOP had a net favorability rating of +54 points among its own members. That, of course, coincided with the rise of the Tea Party and four Republican members of Congress (two senators and two representatives) losing renomination the following year.
On the Democratic side, intraparty satisfaction has been this low at this point in the cycle only once in the past 16 years: in 2017, following a year of infighting between supporters of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders. In an average of four CNN polls conducted that year, Democrats gave the Democratic Party a net favorability rating of +58 points. The following election saw the rise of the “Squad,” as progressive Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley defeated entrenched Democratic incumbents.
But while these phenomena were certainly notable, they were also limited in scope: The defeats of four Republicans in 2010 and two Democrats in 2018 hardly represented tsunamis of anti-incumbent sentiment. The reality is, a few members of Congress lose their primaries every election cycle, but it’s rarely more than a handful. According to data collected by Bloomberg’s Greg Giroux, in the average cycle since 1990, six members of Congress have lost renomination.
And low intraparty net favorability ratings in the year before the election haven’t historically led to a lot of incumbents losing their primaries. For example, both the Democratic and Republican parties were relatively unpopular among their own members in 2017, but only five incumbents lost renomination in 2018. Then, both Democrats and Republicans became much happier with their parties in 2019 — but eight incumbents lost renomination in 2020.
The lack of a relationship here isn’t too surprising. When you look more closely, most incumbents who lose in primaries do so for specific reasons, like scandals, redistricting, or simply getting caught napping — not national trends. Indeed, incumbent primary losses always spike in years ending in 2, which, of course, are the first elections conducted after post-Census redistricting. While only four members of Congress have lost renomination in the average non-redistricting cycle since 1990, an average of 14 have done so in redistricting years.
So we probably shouldn’t expect an unusual number of incumbents to go down in primaries next year. However, that doesn’t mean that the Democratic Party establishment can rest easy. The relatively high level of Democratic discontent could still manifest itself in open-seat races. The biggest impact of the Tea Party movement wasn’t incumbents losing primaries, but rather the proliferation of a new breed of uncompromising, anti-establishment conservatives that moved the Republican caucus right, obstructed legislation favored by GOP leadership, and ousted multiple speakers of the House. Similarly, MAGA-aligned legislators have displaced old-guard Republicans in Washington since President Donald Trump’s first election in 2016, predominantly not through defeating them in primaries, but succeeding them after they retired. Over on the Democratic side, most “Squad” members other than Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley — including Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Summer Lee — were first elected from open seats. And, of course, last week’s Democratic primary for mayor of New York City didn’t feature an incumbent either.
Simply because of the sheer number of open seats (18 representatives have already retired or resigned this year, and the average cycle since 2009-10 has seen 52 representatives do so), one of the biggest things to watch for in the 2026 congressional primaries will be whether Democratic primary voters nominate more candidates opposed by party leadership. (Some more grist for this theory: Another CNN poll from April found that Democrats disapproved of the way Democratic leaders in Congress were handling their jobs, 57 percent to 42 percent. That’s much more overtly negative than their views of the party in general.) And if those candidates go on to win the general election, Democratic leaders in Congress could experience for themselves the same kind of intraparty strife that has plagued Republicans in recent years.
But history suggests that sitting Democratic members of Congress are in no special danger in 2026 primaries. Even in the most anti-incumbent election cycles, 95 percent or more of incumbents still win renomination.