Archive

Arizona Senate: Sinema’s Decision Complicates 2024 Race

by Erin Covey December 9, 2022 · 11:00 AM EST

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona.

Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new…

House Results: A Good Cycle for Incumbents

by Erin Covey December 2, 2022 · 2:30 PM EST

Democratic Members of Congress were bracing themselves for disaster. Running in a year marked by economic uncertainty — and widespread frustration with the direction that the country was heading in — incumbents in the party that controlled the federal government expected significant losses.

But…

Baseline Update: Which States Shifted the Most After 2022

by Bradley Wascher December 2, 2022 · 2:29 PM EST

With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric. 

Baseline captures a state or…

Senate Results: How Much Did GOP Candidates Underperform?

by Ryan Matsumoto December 2, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

One of the prevailing narratives of the 2022 midterms is that Democrats exceeded expectations because of underwhelming Republican candidates. 

In late October, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that even though voters in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania…

Georgia Senate Runoff: Will Warnock Repeat?

by Jacob Rubashkin December 1, 2022 · 10:00 AM EST

It may sound familiar: a runoff in Georgia will help determine the balance of power in the United States Senate.

Because neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican football legend Herschel Walker won a majority of the vote on Nov. 8, Georgia law requires the two to run in a second…

2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 28 2022)

November 28, 2022 · 11:30 AM EST

Updated as of Nov. 28, 2022 at 11:30am ET

By Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales

Elections are humbling, and this time it’s Republicans’ turn for some soul searching.

Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party…

2022 Election Results: Split Decision

November 18, 2022 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Erin Covey, and Jacob Rubashkin

Elections are humbling, and this time it’s Republicans’ turn for some soul searching.

Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the party in power was…

2022 Election Results: What Happened in the Senate?

by Jacob Rubashkin November 18, 2022 · 2:29 PM EST

Despite President Joe Biden’s poor job approval rating looming over the midterm elections, Democrats maintained control of the Senate, and might even expand their majority. 

At a minimum, Democrats will have 50-50 control of the Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. If Sen.…

2022 Election Results: What Happened in the House?

by Erin Covey November 18, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

Republicans won the House majority, but by a narrower margin than expected. With votes still being counted in a few close races, Republicans are poised to gain between six and nine seats. They needed a net gain of five for the majority. 

Democrats were victorious in the most competitive races.

2022 Election Results: What Happened in Gubernatorial Races?

by Jacob Rubashkin November 18, 2022 · 2:27 PM EST

The least surprising results of the cycle might have been in gubernatorial races, with each party winning all the races they were favored to win. But similar to the House and the Senate, Democrats won a disproportionate number of toss-up races, including Kansas, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Arizona,…