Inside Elections

2014 House Ratings (June 27, 2013)

June 27, 2013 · 3:00 PM EDT

Is the Senate More Volatile Than the House in 2014?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2013 · 11:16 AM EDT

Next year, voters will go to the polls to elect 435 House members and 35 United States senators, but it seems quite possible that there will be more net change in the Senate than in the House.

If this occurs, it would be worth noting, since it has happened only twice during midterm elections…

The War on Women vs. The War on Children

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 21, 2013 · 3:00 PM EDT

There isn’t an issue that more clearly defines the partisan disconnect in this country than abortion and abortion rights.

Hosts and guests on MSNBC are perpetually perplexed by Republicans, who pursue limits to legal abortion – mostly recently the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act – even…

I Would Fly 5,000 Miles Just to Help You Get Elected

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 21, 2013 · 9:41 AM EDT

Rep. Edward J. Markey is getting widespread support from Massachusetts to Hawaii in his special-election bid for Senate in the Bay State. Wait, what? Hawaii?

Last weekend, freshman Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, took to the campaign trail along with a large collection of state, local and federal…

A Good Test of Exactly How Screwed Up Washington Is

by Stuart Rothenberg June 20, 2013 · 11:09 PM EDT

Editor's Note: This column first appeared in Roll Call before Thursday's vote.

Once upon a time, on a very different planet and in a very different country, the farm bill was not among the more controversial things that Congress did.

Yes, previous farm bills have produced knock-down, drag-out…

It’s Never Too Early to Fight About Polling Methodology

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 20, 2013 · 9:12 AM EDT

Bickering over polls is a time-honored tradition in campaigns. But the latest exchange of surveys in Utah’s 4th District is not just an example of partisan pollsters getting very different results. It is also a reminder of the importance of polling methodology.

Earlier this month, the National…

Why We Never Moved the Massachusetts Senate Race to Toss-Up

by Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2013 · 9:36 AM EDT

Minutes after Gabriel Gomez was declared the winner of his party’s special primary on the evening of April 30, I tweeted that Gomez’s victory assured that the Massachusetts Senate special election would be “interesting.” And it has been.

But as the June 25 balloting approaches, it is clear the…

Search for Competitive House Open Seats Comes Up Empty

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 18, 2013 · 9:14 AM EDT

Open seats are supposed to be opportunities. Without longtime incumbents on the ballot, these districts should be easier to takeover. But six months into the 2014 cycle, that just isn’t the case on the House side.

So far, there are 10 districts slated to be open seats because the member is…

Latino candidates line up for next year’s Congressional races in Florida

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2013 · 10:46 AM EDT

The midterm elections are still more than a year away, but Latino candidates in Florida are already jockeying for position in a couple of key congressional races.

In 2012, Democrat Joe Garcia defeated incumbent David Rivera in the 26th District, in large part because the Republican congressman…

Democrats Struggle for Traction in Early House Landscape

by Stuart Rothenberg June 14, 2013 · 1:00 PM EDT

Democrats’ long-shot slog to add the additional 17 seats that would give them control of the House after the midterms has gotten even tougher over the past couple of months.

Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s underwhelming showing in a South Carolina special election showed how difficult it will be to…