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Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 16, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

The Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016 stories are classic examples of an out-of-control media narrative that is based on little hard evidence.

But it may also end up being a lesson on why it’s best not to dismiss rampant speculation.

The rumor that the first lady could run for the Senate in…

Obama’s New Nuance on His Student Loans

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 13, 2014 · 9:53 AM EDT

President Barack Obama made a fresh case for student loan overhaul with an executive order this week, but he also relayed a much more nuanced version of his own college debt experience.

Over the last couple of years, Obama used his college debt as a compelling anecdote to connect with younger…

How and Why are Two Separate Questions in Cantor Loss

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 11, 2014 · 11:23 AM EDT

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary in convincing fashion, but there appears to be two separate questions: How did he lose? And why was it a surprise?

One thing that everyone should be able to agree on is that Cantor’s loss was historic. According to Roll Call’s research, he is…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

by Stuart Rothenberg June 6, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Control of the Senate in 2014 is all about the arithmetic, and the numbers -- and history -- still favor the GOP.

Both South Dakota and West Virginia look all-but-certain to flip to the Republicans, with Montana still a very difficult lift for the Democrats.

That means the GOP needs to win at…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Alabama - Kansas

June 6, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA -- Jeff Sessions (R), elected 1996 (52%), 2002 (59%) and 2008 (63%). The last Democratic Senate nominee to receive even 40 percent of the vote in Alabama was Roger Bedford nearly 20 years ago. Safe Republican.

ALASKA -- Mark Begich (D), elected 2008 (48%). August 26 primary. Three…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky - New Mexico

June 6, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%). Senate Minority Leader McConnell beat primary challenger Matt Bevin surprisingly easily, and he will now turn his guns on Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who gives Democrats their…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina - Wyoming

June 6, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA -- Kay Hagan (D), elected 2008 (53%). Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan certainly knew that she would have a serious challenge. State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican nomination without a runoff, allowing him to avoid further attacks and focus all his…

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2014 · 9:50 AM EDT

The office of lieutenant governor is so important that five states don’t even have one, yet that hasn’t stopped the national political media from treating some contests for the office as crucial indicators of something.

In the recent primary runoff in Texas, anti-establishment conservative…

California 25: Another District Falls Off the List of Competitive Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 4, 2014 · 11:04 AM EDT

Projecting which party is going to win a competitive seat in November can be challenging, except when one party doesn’t even have a candidate.

Two Republicans finished first and second in the primary in California’s 25th District, guaranteeing that the seat will remain in GOP hands for another…