Inside Elections

2018 Senate Ratings (November 20, 2018)

November 20, 2018 · 10:57 AM EST

It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2018 · 8:54 AM EST

The races are still being finalized in the 2018 Senate elections, but we know the size of the incoming majority will be critical, because the 2020 Senate map offers limited initial takeover opportunities for both parties.

Of course, it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like,…

Inside Elections on Election Night

November 6, 2018 · 9:05 AM EST

The big day is finally here. Tonight, Leah will be behind-the-scenes at CBS on their Decision Desk. Nathan (who was on CNN bright and early this morning), will help kick off C-SPAN’s coverage at 8pm Eastern, will make some taped appearances on PBS Newshour, and will be a part of CBN’s live coverage…

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2018 · 10:46 AM EST

On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously 

The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of…

2018 House Ratings (November 5, 2018)

November 5, 2018 · 10:45 AM EST

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty (and…

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alaska. Open; Bill Walker (I), not seeking re-election. Independent Gov. Bill Walker dropped his re-election bid, boosting the prospects of former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. The two men were at risk of dividing Democratic and left-of-center voters, which would have allowed Republican Mike…

Senate Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. There was a brief moment when it looked liked GOP Rep. Martha McSally had pulled even with or even slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, but that appears to have dissipated. The vast majority of the latest data show Sinema with a…

House Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Please refer to the Oct. 26 issue for summaries of every competitive House race on our ratings chart. The following are districts with news, analysis, or polling within the last week. 

California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. There’s some still some conflicting…

Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

November 1, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

By Ryan Matsumoto

Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.

Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s…