Inside Elections

California Primary Results: Counting Continues But Clarity in Sight

2026-06-05T19:25:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Votes are still being counted, but there’s plenty of clarity in more than a handful of key contests in the Golden State.

1st District. Vacant following the death of Doug LaMalfa, R. Harris 54%. State Assemblyman James Gallagher won the special election to replace LaMalfa under the old district lines, avoiding an August 4 runoff and helping shore up the House GOP’s numbers on Capitol Hill ahead of the summer. Gallagher also earned a spot in the fall general election, but that race will take place under different lines and Democratic state Sen.…

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2026 House Ratings (June 5, 2026)

2026-06-05T19:24:00+00:00

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Alabama Redistricting: Republicans Likely to Net a Seat

2026-06-05T19:17:00+00:00

In a brief decision earlier this week, the United States Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use a new congressional map for this fall that should help Republicans flip one Democratic-held seat.

A district court had previously ruled that Alabama’s preferred map violated the 14th Amendment and the Voting Rights Act by depriving Black voters of the chance to elect representatives of their own choosing. But the justices split 6-3 along ideological lines to block that ruling in the wake of their decision in last month’s case Callais v. Louisiana.

As a result, four of Alabama’s districts — the 1st, the…

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Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

2026-06-03T16:40:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Primary voters in a handful of states went to the polls on Tuesday to select nominees in key races, setting the stage for competitive general election contests or coronating future new members of Congress in solidly Republican or Democratic seats. Here’s a quick rundown of some key results.

Iowa Senate. Open; Joni Ernst, R, not seeking re-election. State Rep. Josh Turek cruised to victory over state Sen. Zach Wahls, winning 63-37 percent and carrying 96 of 99 counties. Turek, the choice of national Democratic strategists, was boosted by nearly $10 million in outside…

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2026 Gubernatorial Ratings (June 3, 2026)

2026-06-03T16:39:00+00:00

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Louisiana Redistricting: Fields Put Out to Pasture

2026-06-03T03:05:00+00:00

One month after Gov. Jeff Landry canceled Louisiana's May 16 House primaries, the Republican signed into law a new congressional map that will help the GOP flip a Democratic-held seat this fall and lock in a 5-1 advantage in the congressional delegation.

Landry and Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landry (no relation) called off Louisiana’s scheduled primaries after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the state’s current congressional map was an unconstitutional gerrymander that discriminated against the state’s white voters.

That decision, in Louisiana v. Callais, upended several decades of Voting Rights Act interpretations and prompted several states across the South,…

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Podcast Episode 72: New York! New York! Primaries w/ Jeff Coltin of City & State

2026-06-02T03:17:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Jeff Coltin of City & State break down the plethora of key House primaries in New York including key Democratic races in some of the most liberal districts in the country with interesting candidates from John F. Kennedy’s grandson to 2016 Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway’s ex-husband.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

2026-05-27T03:19:00+00:00

Fresh off a long, holiday weekend, voters in Texas went to the polls for a series of consequential runoffs. In some cases, nominees were selected in key general election contests. While in others, runoff winners are now likely members of Congress because they won primaries in either solidly red or solidly blue districts.

Senate. Open; John Cornyn (R), lost primary. When Trump endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, he closed off Cornyn’s last remaining path to victory in this year-long race between two longtime rivals. Paxton, one of Trump’s most vociferous defenders after the president began spreading false conspiracy theories…

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Inside Primary Night as Georgia Goes Into Overtime

2026-05-22T17:57:00+00:00

By Nicholas Demba

ATLANTA, GA — It was finally game night. The Battery, an upscale development in suburban Cobb County adjacent to Truist Park, filled up with cars that had braved Atlanta’s infamous rush hour traffic. But the main event wasn’t the Braves: it was the opening round of matchups to decide the political future of the Peach State.

Now one of the nation’s premier swing states, Georgia is set to host competitive general elections for both Senate and governor in November. On Tuesday night, “The ATL” watched returns come in as primary voters decided nominees in key races that have drawn both national attention and millions of dollars in spending.

The Battery is a fitting location for campaigns to gather to learn about their future. The Metro Atlanta suburbs have upended the political dynamics in the state over the past decade, driving Democrats into contention after years in the wilderness. Mitt Romney carried Cobb County with 55 percent of the vote in the 2012 presidential race. Four years later, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to lose the county in four decades (the last Democrat to win it was favorite son Jimmy Carter). Since then, the area has only continued to rocket leftward, thanks to an increasingly diversifying electorate and anti-Trump suburbanites.

Across town, at the ballroom at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Atlanta, the clock showed the 7 p.m. poll closing time quickly approaching. Campaign staffers frantically gave instructions to volunteers wearing white “Keisha Lance Bottoms for Governor” t-shirts as they prepared for attendees to arrive.

Hotel bar employees set up drinks to be sold for $16 each. Michael Jackson’s “P.Y.T.” played in the background. Two employees set up an American flag on the stage. The media stood on press risers in the back of the ballroom, with broadcast reporters packed shoulder to shoulder, receiving updates from control rooms through their earpieces.

The atmosphere in the ballroom was less suspenseful than anticipatory. Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, was the frontrunner to secure the Democratic nomination for governor. As the only person in the race with widespread name recognition, she had held a consistent advantage over her rivals, including former state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.

Bottoms’ home base of Fulton County delayed reporting its results until 11 p.m. after a precinct went into lockdown due to a nearby manhunt. But even without most of Atlanta, Bottoms’ lead over her opponents was large enough for the Associated Press to call the race in her favor at 10:30 p.m.

Even before the race was called, Marcella McCray and Tracy Edgar were already looking toward the general election. The two had spent their Election Day setting up decorations for the event. Edgar, who had phone banked for Bottoms, was optimistic.

“I feel very confident about November. I think people are tired of the old stuff that’s been going on with the other party,” Edgar said. “We’re tired, we’re hungry, some people have lost jobs, people can’t afford gas, everybody’s just tired.”

Edgar wasn’t just tired of 24 years of a Republican in the governor’s mansion. She was also fed up with the onslaught of ads on the other side of the aisle.

“It’s constant. If you can’t run a campaign on positive stuff, then you probably don’t need to be running,” she told Inside Elections.

The race to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has indeed grown particularly nasty on the GOP side. While Lt. Gov. Burt Jones quickly secured the backing of Trump and was the clear frontrunner over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and state Attorney General Chris Carr, the campaign was shaken up when billionaire Rick Jackson entered the race in February.

The Republicans running statewide had plenty of disagreements — but not, it seems, on the best place to throw a party. Carr, Jackson, and Senate candidate Derek Dooley all held their watch parties at The Battery within walking distance of each other.

On most nights, Coors Banquet Bar is packed with Braves fans adorned with Matt Olson jerseys. Tonight, the uniform was campaign hats and “I Voted” stickers. Carr walked around greeting supporters. A podium in the corner of the room stood ready for him to speak later in the night.

Fruit platters and charcuterie boards were largely untouched. Of the venue’s many TV screens, only half were tuned to the election results (on Fox News, naturally). The others were following baseball games, including the Braves, who were en route to an 8-4 victory over the Marlins in Miami.

The scoreboard was less generous to Team Carr. At the moment, he trailed in fourth behind Jones, Jackson, and Raffensperger. Carr and Raffensperger had aligned themselves more closely with the establishment wing of the party; Jones and Jackson had signed on with Trump. It was clear which team was headed to the playoffs.

Deron Dowhower, a longtime friend of Carr, was frustrated with the way the race had played out.

“It’s par for the course. It’s just the way it’s done these days, unfortunately,” said Dowhower, who attended high school with Carr in the neighboring suburb of Brookhaven. “The best, the most fit to govern is not the one who wins these days. It’s the one who has the most money, the most eyeballs, the most either disinformation or misinformation.”

It wasn’t difficult to understand who Dowhower was talking about. You could even see him. Carr supporters only had to step out onto the bar’s patio to get a glimpse of the ritzy Omni Hotel towering above them, where billionaire Rick Jackson was holding his campaign’s election night watch party.

In a packed ballroom on the third floor of the Omni, Jackson’s guests could help themselves to crudités cups and popcorn. But even though the health care executive had spent over $80 million of his own money on his campaign to get there, he wasn’t going all out quite yet: a glass of wine at the cash bar ran $16.

Inside, the scene was lively as the Jackson campaign maintained a flow of high-profile supporters coming up to the podium, almost as a kind of opening act building up to the big finale. Among them were state House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

King previewed some of the talking points to be used against Bottoms in November regarding her tenure as mayor during Covid-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests.

“We’re ready to show the contrast,” King told Inside Elections. “I can’t wait to run a number of Atlanta police officers to show how they were treated when Keisha was mayor, and how she let the city burn, and now she wants to come back… and burn it again. Is that the strategy?”

After King spoke, the twin big screens flanking the stage lit up with Jackson’s signature campaign music video, “Win Big for Georgia.” While you could be forgiven for thinking the catchy country-pop song was performed by a big star, in reality the song and video, which recount Jackson’s journey from poverty to riches, were generated by AI. “From the hard road to the high road, I know what it takes. When the stakes are on the table, I don’t blink. I don’t break,” the speakers blasted as Jackson’s son Shane took the stage to introduce his father.

The man of the hour walked onto the stage as Strauss’s “Thus Spoke Zarathustra,” the opening fanfare to 2001: A Space Odyssey, blared behind him. In most states, a candidate in second place would not be giving a quasi-victory speech on election night. However, Georgia state law mandates that if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, then a runoff is held. Jackson finished six points behind Jones, but the two are headed to a June 16 runoff.

In his speech, Jackson repeated many of the same lines that had appeared on the campaign trail and in his ads, emphasizing his rise from poverty, his Christian faith, and his outsider status while taking jabs at Jones.

“When we win, President Trump will be a winner. I’ll be President Trump’s favorite governor,” Jackson said. “As governor, I’ll be like Trump, but with a Southern tone.” After he finished, Jackson descended the stage to gladhand supporters.

Just down the street was Dooley, the former University of Tennessee football coach now vying for the GOP Senate nomination. Tomorrow night, Park Bench Battery was set to host karaoke. But on Tuesday it was home to his election watch party.

On one side, a bar lined with drinks, brisket sliders, and chicken satay. On the other, a stage backed by a massive American flag. In the middle, TVs tuned to NBC and the latest episode of “America’s Got Talent” as results slowly crawled in across the bottom of the screen.

The GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November pitted Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter against Dooley, the son of the late Georgia coaching legend Vince Dooley and 2002 Georgia congressional candidate Barbara Dooley.

At around 10:00 pm, the entire room’s attention shifted as guests rushed to the front door to greet a new arrival. It was not Dooley. It was Gov. Brian Kemp.

Holding the hand of First Lady Marty Kemp, he slowly advanced through the venue greeting attendees and taking photos. After circling back around, he took a second to autograph one of Dooley’s campaign signs.

Dooley had leaned heavily on Kemp’s support throughout his campaign. Kemp frequently accompanied him on the campaign trail, and Kemp’s super PAC ran ads on his behalf. Kemp left national Republicans miffed after he passed on a bid of his own last May, but his support had proven critical to helping Dooley make a runoff with Rep. Collins.

After an aide came up to test the microphone one final time, Kemp came up to the stage to introduce Dooley, who he called a longtime family friend.

At the podium, Dooley told the crowd that Carter, who represents Coastal Georgia, had called him to concede the race. Dooley emphasized his electability while attacking Collins for being under investigation by the House Ethics Committee and for being vulnerable in the general election.

“Beating Jon Ossoff is not gonna be done by another D.C. politician,” Dooley said. “A vote for Mike Collins is a vote for Jon Ossoff for the next six years, but a vote for me is a vote for new leadership in the U.S. Senate.”

As Dooley concluded, the speakers played him off with James Brown’s “Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs,” written in 1975 about the elder Dooley’s famous UGA football squad. Though he had been mocked by rivals during the campaign for his less-than-stellar track record on the field compared to his father, tonight he had forced the first game of his political career into overtime.

Democrats had settled their nominees for Senate and governor, while Republicans were now bracing for a final sprint to decide their candidates on June 16.

Four weeks left on the clock. Here we go.

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Maine Senate: Corner of the Country, Center of the Battleground

2026-05-21T18:30:00+00:00

Maine should be Democrats’ best pickup opportunity on a difficult Senate map. The only state to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 that is represented by a Republican, Maine is a critical part of the Democratic path back to the majority.

But standing in their way is an immovable force that has beguiled the party for decades: Republican Susan Collins.

Since winning her first race in 1996 and claiming the mantle of trailblazing Maine Sen. Margaret Chase Smith, Collins has bulldozed her way to re-election cycle after cycle, despite Democrats recruiting a variety of well-credentialed and well-funded candidates…

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Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

2026-05-21T18:29:00+00:00

New Jersey’s 7th District. GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has not been seen in public or private for more than two months as he deals with an unspecified medical condition. Kean’s staff insists that the congressman will be back to work shortly and continues to send out communications in his name, but there’s no indication of when he will actually return or where he currently is. While Democrats have a competitive primary to sort through, Republicans need their candidate to be present and on the trail in order to hold this swing seat. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.

Pennsylvania’s…

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2026 House Ratings (May 21, 2026)

2026-05-21T18:28:00+00:00

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Georgia Results: Primary Voters Narrow Their Choices

2026-05-20T15:49:00+00:00
By Nicholas Demba
In battleground Georgia, many marquee races of the night proceeded to runoffs to be decided on June 16. While the Peach State is not set to host any competitive House races this fall and any post-Callais redistricting will not take effect until 2028, primary voters selected nominees in a handful of safe open seats as well as a slate of competitive statewide races.

Another major story took place downballot as Democrat-aligned candidates Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan lost their bids to unseat two sitting Republican-appointed Supreme Court Justices. The officially nonpartisan races, in which both Rankin and Jordan emphasized their support for abortion rights and were bolstered by superior party turnout, resembled an attempt to replicate the party’s recent successes in Wisconsin. However, even with more voters pulling a Democratic ballot in the primary, Rankin and Jordan fell short.

Senate. Jon Ossoff (D), elected 2020 (51%). In the GOP primary, Rep. Mike Collins finished first with 40 percent and will advance to the runoff while former Tennessee Volunteers football coach Derek Dooley (30 percent) notched the second spot over Rep. Buddy Carter (25 percent). The winner will face Ossoff in November in one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. Dooley leaned on the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp and support from the Atlanta metro region to advance. All three candidates have privately lobbied Trump for his endorsement, though he has declined to endorse in the contest so far. While Republicans started this cycle with high hopes to unseat Ossoff, Kemp’s decision not to run combined with a messy primary now set to extend for another four weeks has diminished the GOP’s chances. Additionally, Ossoff has amassed a sizable war chest for the general election with over $32 million dollars in cash on hand. Tossup.

Governor. Open; Brian Kemp (R), term-limited. In the race for governor, both sides hosted competitive primaries. On the GOP side, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38 percent) and health care executive Rick Jackson (33 percent) advanced to a runoff. Though Jones had been the initial frontrunner, Jackson jolted this race with his unexpected entry in February, and the billionaire has since spent more than $80 million of his own money on the campaign. The result was the second time in a row President Trump has failed to clear the field for his preferred gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, after Kemp soundly defeated former Sen. David Perdue four years ago. With the third and fourth place candidates, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (15 percent) and state Attorney General Chris Carr (12 percent), hailing from the more establishment wing of the party, Jones faces the tough task of cobbling together a winning coalition in June. The next four weeks of this race are likely to be a continued slugfest between the two rivals.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary saw former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms successfully avoid a runoff, notching 56 percent of the vote, far ahead of her closest competitors. Her win was driven by a strong showing in Atlanta proper and with Black voters. While Bottoms is likely to face attacks around her tenure as mayor and decision not to run for a second term, Democrats are hoping that infighting on the Republican side and a favorable national environment will allow them to flip the governor’s mansion for the first time in 28 years. Tilt Republican.

1st District (Coastal Georgia) Open; Buddy Carter, R, running for Senate. Trump 58%. Insurance executive Jim Kingston avoided a runoff in the Republican primary, clinching 52 percent of the vote. His father, Jack Kingston, represented coastal Georgia for 22 years. The younger Kingston’s campaign was buoyed by an endorsement from President Trump in April. He will be the heavy favorite in November to replace Carter. Solid Republican.

9th District (Northeastern Georgia and northeastern Atlanta exurbs) Andrew Clyde, R, re-elected 69%. Trump 67%. Republican Rep. Andrew Clyde (75 percent) fended off a challenge from Gainesville mayor Sam Couvillon (13 percent). Hall County Commissioner Greg Poole finished in third with 12 percent. Couvillon had outraised Clyde and targeted him for the lack of money he brought home to the district. Still, Clyde’s incumbency and the backing of President Trump was more than enough to avoid a runoff. Solid Republican.

10th District (Eastern Atlanta exurbs and Athens) Open; Mike Collins, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. GOP voters nominated State Rep. Houston Gaines in the race to replace Rep. Mike Collins with 67 percent of the vote. He defeated film executive Ryan Millsap (18 percent), who self-funded his campaign. Gaines was the candidate to beat and further solidified his advantage with an endorsement from President Trump. Solid Republican.

11th District (Northwestern Atlanta suburbs and exurbs) Open; Barry Loudermilk, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 61%. Surgeon John Cowan (43 percent) and former congressional aide Rob Adkerson (22 percent) secured two runoff slots as they vie to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk. Whoever wins the runoff should be a lock to hold this seat in November. Solid Republican.

13th District (Western and southern Atlanta suburbs) Vacant following the death of David Scott, D. Harris 71%. What was set to be one of the Democratic primaries this year centering on generational change was flipped on its head after Rep. David Scott passed away on April 22. Scott had been facing a crowded field of challengers focusing the race on his advanced age and declining health. Now in an open seat race, state Rep. Jasmine Clark finished well ahead with 56 percent.. The separate special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the year will be held on July 28. Marcye Scott, the late Representative’s daughter, is among those running. Clark is not running in the special election. Solid Democratic.

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Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

2026-05-20T13:47:00+00:00

Alabama Senate. The race to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville is headed to overtime after no candidate received a majority of the vote. Rep. Barry Moore had Trump’s endorsement and backing from the Club for Growth but finished with around 40 percent. Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson and state Attorney General Steve Marshall are locked in an unsettled battle for a second spot in the June 16 runoff. Hudson had 26 percent of the vote to Marshall’s 25 percent with most of the votes counted, but the race is not yet called. Democrats Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett will head to a runoff. Solid Republican.

Alabama’s 1st. Alabama’s congressional map is in a state of flux. The state says it is now using a map drawn in 2023 that includes just one Black-plurality district instead of the map it used in 2024, which contained two such districts. The state voided the primary election in the three affected districts. But the court that previously struck down the 2023 map has said it will still hold a hearing later this week to determine which map the state will ultimately be required to use. The upshot is that tonight’s GOP primary results in the open 1st District won’t count, but there’s a chance that the same candidates will face off against each other in an August special primary — potentially under the same lines as in 2024. Solid Republican.

Kentucky Senate. Rep. Andy Barr easily pushed past former state attorney general Daniel Cameron, 61-31 percent, after securing an endorsement from President Donald Trump a few weeks ago. Cameron had entered the race with high name ID and a polling advantage but Barr’s fundraising strength and energetic campaign pulled him into a tie with Cameron by springtime. Trump’s intervention — endorsing Barr and pushing the third credible candidate, Nate Morris, out of the race — sealed the deal for the Lexington congressman. Democrats nominated former state Rep. Charles Booker for a second time. He lost handily to Sen. Rand Paul four years ago. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 4th. Rep. Thomas Massie is no stranger to breaks from party orthodoxy. But his vote against the president’s reconciliation bill last year and his push to force the Justice Department to release its documents on Jeffrey Epstein was too much for Trump. The president’s team recruited former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein to run against Massie and directed his political allies to spend tens of millions of dollars on Gallrein’s behalf. Massie couldn’t hold on, losing to Gallrein, 55-45 percent. The result is the latest flex of Trump’s continued hold over the GOP. He’s now helped topple two GOP incumbents, Massie and Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, and his refusal to endorse a third, Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw, likely contributed to his defeat as well. Even as the president’s standing among the American people continues to explore new lows, his strength within the GOP is unparalleled. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 6th. This district could emerge on the House battleground if the political environment continues to worsen for Republicans. Right now, Ralph Alvarado is the heavy favorite to win the general election after dispatching state Rep. Ryan Dotson in the GOP primary, 57-26 percent. Alvarado was endorsed by Trump. But Democrats are also eager to contest the seat. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo emerged victorious in that primary with 40 percent over state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson (32 percent). Solid Republican.

Oregon Governor. Former state House minority leader Christine Drazan won the GOP primary with 43 percent over Ed Diehl (32 percent) and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (16 percent) and others. Drazan lost a competitive race to Kotek by 3 points in 2022 and Dudley lost a gubernatorial race by 1.5 points in 2010. Even though Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982, Kotek’s unpopularity is giving the GOP some hope.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Bob Harvie won the Democratic nomination 65-35 percent over Lucia Simonelli and will face GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the general election. Fitzpatrick had a whopping $7.3 million to $604,000 cash advantage on April 29, but the suburban Philadelphia district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 and the political environment is much worse for the GOP. Lean Republican.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District. Chris Rabb (44 percent) defeated Sharif Street (30 percent) and Dr. Ala Stanford (24 percent) to win the Democratic nomination. That’s critical in the race to replace Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans in the Philadelphia seat where Harris received 88 percent. Rabb was the progressive choice in the race and had endorsements from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Democratic Socialists of America. Solid Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s 7th. National Democrats waded into this contentious primary a few weeks ago when the DCCC anointed firefighter Bob Brooks as its preferred candidate over Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and former energy executive Carol Obando-Derstine. That ruffled a few feathers but ultimately Brooks prevailed with 42 percent, boosted along the way by endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is a top Democratic target this fall. Toss-up.

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Podcast Episode 71: Which Nebraska Republicans Might Lose? w/ Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner

2026-05-15T18:52:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner take a fresh look at the Senate race in the Cornhusker State, where Democrats are rallying behind independent candidate Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Osborn came up short in 2024, but the conditions might be right for an upset in 2026. Nathan, Jacob and Aaron also talk about the competitive race for the Omaha-based 2nd District, where Republicans are trying to hold on with GOP Rep. Don Bacon not seeking re-election. There’s also plenty of talk about the best free bread in America, a delicious place to eat in Omaha and the upcoming Star Wars movie.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes

2026-05-08T15:35:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
The Virginia State Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ ambitious redistricting plan in the Old Dominion on Friday. The map, which was designed to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican, was approved by voters in a statewide referendum last month.

The decision is an exclamation point on a madcap week of redistricting that began with Florida passing an aggressive new GOP-drawn map and then saw Tennessee dismantle its last remaining majority-Black, Solid Democratic district.

Factoring in today’s shifts in Virginia, Inside Elections has made 12 House ratings changes this week due to redistricting, with 11 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats: five in Virginia, five in Florida, and two in Tennessee.

Following those changes, Republicans are favored to win seven more seats than they were on Monday.

Virginia
Our ratings will revert to where they were before the April 21 referendum.

1st District. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman will still face a competitive race, likely against Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, but the partisan lean of the district is again in his favor. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

2nd District. GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ Virginia Beach-based district remains largely the same but is a bit more favorable to Republicans now. You can read a full analysis of this race in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.

5th District. GOP Rep. John McGuire is the clear favorite against likely Democratic nominee Tom Perriello following the court’s decision to restore the old map, though this district could get more competitive for Democrats. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

6th District. GOP Rep. Ben Cline was one of the loudest critics of the redistricting referendum as it demolished his Shenandoah Valley district. Now he’ll be the favorite in this very Republican seat. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Republican.

7th District. Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman had planned to move to the new 1st District and leave a radically reconfigured 7th open for the taking. Now he’ll face a competitive re-election campaign in the perennial swing seat. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Florida
A full accounting of Florida’s ratings changes can be found in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections.

9th District. Democrat Darren Soto is the underdog in this reconfigured Central Florida seat that is no longer majority-Hispanic. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Republican.

14th District. Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor will be an underdog for re-election after the redraw swapped out two-thirds of her constituents and turned the district into one that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

22nd District. Rep. Lois Frankel is leaving this district to run in the neighboring and more Democratic 23rd District. The new and radically reconfigured 22nd would have voted for Trump by a healthy margin in 2024, but for Biden in 2020. Former state Sen. Lauren Book might run here and would be a credible candidate for Democrats. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is another possibility. Move from Solid Democratic to Tilt Republican.

23rd District. Frankel is running in this redrawn seat that is now safely Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz may run in the 25th. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.

25th District. Moskowitz has indicated he’ll run in this coastal district that swung from Biden to Trump between 2020 and 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Toss-up.

Tennessee.
A full writeup of Tennessee’s new map appeared online at InsideElections.com on May 8.

5th District. Republicans went out of their way to shore up embattled Rep. Andy Ogles in his primary and general elections. Move from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

9th District. Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen sees his majority-Black Memphis seat obliterated following the Supreme Court’s decision weakening the Voting Rights Act. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

What’s Next
Republican state legislators across the South are contemplating what steps to take in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais vs. Louisiana, which seemed to open the door to the widespread elimination of majority-Black House seats.

In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency and canceled next week’s House primaries to give the state legislature time to draw a map intended to defeat either or both of 2nd District Rep. Troy Carter and 6th Rep. Cleo Fields, both Black Democrats. There is ongoing litigation to prevent that move.

In South Carolina, legislators have convened to discuss dismantling the Palmetto State’s remaining majority-Black seat, held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, but there’s some reluctance among the state Senate leadership to do so.

In Alabama, Republicans await a decision by a lower court that previously barred the state from changing its current map until 2032, after the next decennial census. A favorable ruling for Republicans could prompt the legislature to turn one or both of Black Democratic Reps. Terri Sewell and Shomari Figures’ districts into Republican-friendly seats.

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2026 House Ratings (May 8, 2026) Post Virginia

2026-05-08T14:34:00+00:00

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Tennessee Redistricting: Republicans Seek 9-0 after SCOTUS goes 6-3

2026-05-08T05:04:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
Wasting little time after the Supreme Court defanged what remained of the Voting Rights Act, Tennessee Republicans passed a map designed to elect nine Republican members of Congress this fall. The Volunteer State’s delegation is currently split 8-1 in favor of Republicans, with Democrat Steve Cohen of Memphis as the odd man out.

The new map, signed into law Thursday by Gov. Bill Lee, dismantles Cohen’s majority-Black 9th District by parceling Democratic voters out into neighboring, GOP-friendly seats. Under the new map, Tennessee has no majority-Black seats. Expected legal challenges could shed light on just how reduced in power the Voting Rights Act is following the court’s 6-3 decision in Callais vs. Louisiana last week.

The legislature also re-opened candidate filing until May 15. All nine districts on the new map are rated Solid Republican.

1st District. The 1st remains unchanged under the new map, and Rep. Diana Harshbarger doesn’t have any challengers in the primary, where she received just 19 percent in her initial 2020 election.

2nd District. The 2nd remains unchanged under the new map. Rep. Tim Burchett is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

3rd District. The 3rd remains largely unchanged under the new map and is still anchored by Chattanooga. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is the presumptive GOP nominee.

4th District. The new 4th District reaches into Davidson County (Nashville), picking up Democratic voters previously placed in the 5th and 6th districts. As a result, the district gets moderately less friendly to the GOP; its Baseline score decreases from R+39 to R+18. That’s more than enough of a cushion for the GOP nominee. Rep. Scott DesJarlais’s personal baggage almost always ensures he has a primary challenger, and with 33 percent new constituents he may have to take the primary more seriously.

5th District. Currently on the edge of the House battleground, the 5th District is radically reshaped in the new map. The new seat, which pulls in pieces of the old 5th (17 percent), 7th (28 percent), 8th (22 percent) and 9th (32 percent) districts, begins in Memphis in the state’s southwest corner, snakes north along the Mississippi River, and hangs a right turn at the Kentucky border, extending east to Montgomery and Williamson counties. It no longer includes any of Nashville. GOP Rep. Andy Ogles is the biggest beneficiary of any incumbent on the map. Not only does the new 5th pick up a few points of GOP performance, with a Baseline of R+17 compared to R+15 under the old map, but the map kneecaps both of his most worrisome opponents. Former commissioner of agriculture Charlie Hatcher, who is running against Ogles in the GOP primary, sees his home base in Williamson County drawn out of the district. And Ogles’ likely general election opponent, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, likewise sees half of Columbia and surrounding Maury County drawn out of the district.

6th District. While the core of the 6th District stays intact, roughly 40 percent of voters under the new map will be new to the district, which reaches further into Nashville than previously. Politically, the most significant change is that state Rep. Johnny Garrett, one of the leading candidates for the GOP nomination, sees his legislative seat excised from the district. That may lead to him dropping out, which he hinted at while expressing support for the new map. Former Rep. Van Hilleary is the other major candidate running in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. John Rose, who is running for governor.

7th District. The new 7th is a more compact seat that includes the western half of Nashville as well as the city’s western and northern suburbs. Previously the 7th ran north to south and touched both Kentucky and Alabama, and included the city of Franklin in Williamson County.

Politically, the 7th gains a few points of GOP performance, with its Baseline increasing from R+18 to R+20. Rep. Matt Van Epps, the newest member of the delegation, won a competitive special election late last year but should have an easier time winning a full term this fall.

8th District. The 8th District absorbs much of northeast Memphis, and though the new district contains significantly more Democrats than before, it remains quite friendly to the GOP, with a new Baseline of R+20. That’s more than enough for Rep. David Kustoff to win re-election.

9th District. The current 9th District, a compact Solid Democratic seat based in Memphis, is effectively demolished by the new map. In its place is a seat that stretches east in a thin line from South Memphis, 250 miles along the Mississippi and Alabama borders, and then shoots north to take in the eastern half of Williamson County. The new district is just 31 percent Black, compared to 61 percent under the old map. Its Baseline is an uncompetitive R+15 and it would have voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 21 points.

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2026 House Ratings (May 8, 2026)

2026-05-08T05:03:00+00:00

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Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

2026-05-07T18:30:00+00:00

Republican Jen Kiggans’ 2026 re-election was always going to be her hardest race yet. But after Democrats muscled through an aggressive redraw of Virginia’s congressional map, the two-term representative is one of just a handful of GOP incumbents to begin the summer as a clear underdog.

Kiggans’ experience as a helicopter pilot and nurse practitioner has made her a favorite among GOP strategists — and she has even extracted grudging notes of appreciation and respect from the national and Virginia Democrats who have spent two cycles trying unsuccessfully to paint her as an extremist.

But a midterm election with a…
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