Inside Elections

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

2026-05-27T03:19:00+00:00

Fresh off a long, holiday weekend, voters in Texas went to the polls for a series of consequential runoffs. In some cases, nominees were selected in key general election contests. While in others, runoff winners are now likely members of Congress because they won primaries in either solidly red or solidly blue districts.

Senate. Open; John Cornyn (R), lost primary. When Trump endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, he closed off Cornyn’s last remaining path to victory in this year-long race between two longtime rivals. Paxton, one of Trump’s most vociferous defenders after the president began spreading false conspiracy theories…

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Inside Primary Night as Georgia Goes Into Overtime

2026-05-22T17:57:00+00:00

By Nicholas Demba

ATLANTA, GA — It was finally game night. The Battery, an upscale development in suburban Cobb County adjacent to Truist Park, filled up with cars that had braved Atlanta’s infamous rush hour traffic. But the main event wasn’t the Braves: it was the opening round of matchups to decide the political future of the Peach State.

Now one of the nation’s premier swing states, Georgia is set to host competitive general elections for both Senate and governor in November. On Tuesday night, “The ATL” watched returns come in as primary voters decided nominees in key races that have drawn both national attention and millions of dollars in spending.

The Battery is a fitting location for campaigns to gather to learn about their future. The Metro Atlanta suburbs have upended the political dynamics in the state over the past decade, driving Democrats into contention after years in the wilderness. Mitt Romney carried Cobb County with 55 percent of the vote in the 2012 presidential race. Four years later, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to lose the county in four decades (the last Democrat to win it was favorite son Jimmy Carter). Since then, the area has only continued to rocket leftward, thanks to an increasingly diversifying electorate and anti-Trump suburbanites.

Across town, at the ballroom at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Atlanta, the clock showed the 7 p.m. poll closing time quickly approaching. Campaign staffers frantically gave instructions to volunteers wearing white “Keisha Lance Bottoms for Governor” t-shirts as they prepared for attendees to arrive.

Hotel bar employees set up drinks to be sold for $16 each. Michael Jackson’s “P.Y.T.” played in the background. Two employees set up an American flag on the stage. The media stood on press risers in the back of the ballroom, with broadcast reporters packed shoulder to shoulder, receiving updates from control rooms through their earpieces.

The atmosphere in the ballroom was less suspenseful than anticipatory. Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, was the frontrunner to secure the Democratic nomination for governor. As the only person in the race with widespread name recognition, she had held a consistent advantage over her rivals, including former state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.

Bottoms’ home base of Fulton County delayed reporting its results until 11 p.m. after a precinct went into lockdown due to a nearby manhunt. But even without most of Atlanta, Bottoms’ lead over her opponents was large enough for the Associated Press to call the race in her favor at 10:30 p.m.

Even before the race was called, Marcella McCray and Tracy Edgar were already looking toward the general election. The two had spent their Election Day setting up decorations for the event. Edgar, who had phone banked for Bottoms, was optimistic.

“I feel very confident about November. I think people are tired of the old stuff that’s been going on with the other party,” Edgar said. “We’re tired, we’re hungry, some people have lost jobs, people can’t afford gas, everybody’s just tired.”

Edgar wasn’t just tired of 24 years of a Republican in the governor’s mansion. She was also fed up with the onslaught of ads on the other side of the aisle.

“It’s constant. If you can’t run a campaign on positive stuff, then you probably don’t need to be running,” she told Inside Elections.

The race to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has indeed grown particularly nasty on the GOP side. While Lt. Gov. Burt Jones quickly secured the backing of Trump and was the clear frontrunner over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and state Attorney General Chris Carr, the campaign was shaken up when billionaire Rick Jackson entered the race in February.

The Republicans running statewide had plenty of disagreements — but not, it seems, on the best place to throw a party. Carr, Jackson, and Senate candidate Derek Dooley all held their watch parties at The Battery within walking distance of each other.

On most nights, Coors Banquet Bar is packed with Braves fans adorned with Matt Olson jerseys. Tonight, the uniform was campaign hats and “I Voted” stickers. Carr walked around greeting supporters. A podium in the corner of the room stood ready for him to speak later in the night.

Fruit platters and charcuterie boards were largely untouched. Of the venue’s many TV screens, only half were tuned to the election results (on Fox News, naturally). The others were following baseball games, including the Braves, who were en route to an 8-4 victory over the Marlins in Miami.

The scoreboard was less generous to Team Carr. At the moment, he trailed in fourth behind Jones, Jackson, and Raffensperger. Carr and Raffensperger had aligned themselves more closely with the establishment wing of the party; Jones and Jackson had signed on with Trump. It was clear which team was headed to the playoffs.

Deron Dowhower, a longtime friend of Carr, was frustrated with the way the race had played out.

“It’s par for the course. It’s just the way it’s done these days, unfortunately,” said Dowhower, who attended high school with Carr in the neighboring suburb of Brookhaven. “The best, the most fit to govern is not the one who wins these days. It’s the one who has the most money, the most eyeballs, the most either disinformation or misinformation.”

It wasn’t difficult to understand who Dowhower was talking about. You could even see him. Carr supporters only had to step out onto the bar’s patio to get a glimpse of the ritzy Omni Hotel towering above them, where billionaire Rick Jackson was holding his campaign’s election night watch party.

In a packed ballroom on the third floor of the Omni, Jackson’s guests could help themselves to crudités cups and popcorn. But even though the health care executive had spent over $80 million of his own money on his campaign to get there, he wasn’t going all out quite yet: a glass of wine at the cash bar ran $16.

Inside, the scene was lively as the Jackson campaign maintained a flow of high-profile supporters coming up to the podium, almost as a kind of opening act building up to the big finale. Among them were state House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

King previewed some of the talking points to be used against Bottoms in November regarding her tenure as mayor during Covid-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests.

“We’re ready to show the contrast,” King told Inside Elections. “I can’t wait to run a number of Atlanta police officers to show how they were treated when Keisha was mayor, and how she let the city burn, and now she wants to come back… and burn it again. Is that the strategy?”

After King spoke, the twin big screens flanking the stage lit up with Jackson’s signature campaign music video, “Win Big for Georgia.” While you could be forgiven for thinking the catchy country-pop song was performed by a big star, in reality the song and video, which recount Jackson’s journey from poverty to riches, were generated by AI. “From the hard road to the high road, I know what it takes. When the stakes are on the table, I don’t blink. I don’t break,” the speakers blasted as Jackson’s son Shane took the stage to introduce his father.

The man of the hour walked onto the stage as Strauss’s “Thus Spoke Zarathustra,” the opening fanfare to 2001: A Space Odyssey, blared behind him. In most states, a candidate in second place would not be giving a quasi-victory speech on election night. However, Georgia state law mandates that if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, then a runoff is held. Jackson finished six points behind Jones, but the two are headed to a June 16 runoff.

In his speech, Jackson repeated many of the same lines that had appeared on the campaign trail and in his ads, emphasizing his rise from poverty, his Christian faith, and his outsider status while taking jabs at Jones.

“When we win, President Trump will be a winner. I’ll be President Trump’s favorite governor,” Jackson said. “As governor, I’ll be like Trump, but with a Southern tone.” After he finished, Jackson descended the stage to gladhand supporters.

Just down the street was Dooley, the former University of Tennessee football coach now vying for the GOP Senate nomination. Tomorrow night, Park Bench Battery was set to host karaoke. But on Tuesday it was home to his election watch party.

On one side, a bar lined with drinks, brisket sliders, and chicken satay. On the other, a stage backed by a massive American flag. In the middle, TVs tuned to NBC and the latest episode of “America’s Got Talent” as results slowly crawled in across the bottom of the screen.

The GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November pitted Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter against Dooley, the son of the late Georgia coaching legend Vince Dooley and 2002 Georgia congressional candidate Barbara Dooley.

At around 10:00 pm, the entire room’s attention shifted as guests rushed to the front door to greet a new arrival. It was not Dooley. It was Gov. Brian Kemp.

Holding the hand of First Lady Marty Kemp, he slowly advanced through the venue greeting attendees and taking photos. After circling back around, he took a second to autograph one of Dooley’s campaign signs.

Dooley had leaned heavily on Kemp’s support throughout his campaign. Kemp frequently accompanied him on the campaign trail, and Kemp’s super PAC ran ads on his behalf. Kemp left national Republicans miffed after he passed on a bid of his own last May, but his support had proven critical to helping Dooley make a runoff with Rep. Collins.

After an aide came up to test the microphone one final time, Kemp came up to the stage to introduce Dooley, who he called a longtime family friend.

At the podium, Dooley told the crowd that Carter, who represents Coastal Georgia, had called him to concede the race. Dooley emphasized his electability while attacking Collins for being under investigation by the House Ethics Committee and for being vulnerable in the general election.

“Beating Jon Ossoff is not gonna be done by another D.C. politician,” Dooley said. “A vote for Mike Collins is a vote for Jon Ossoff for the next six years, but a vote for me is a vote for new leadership in the U.S. Senate.”

As Dooley concluded, the speakers played him off with James Brown’s “Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs,” written in 1975 about the elder Dooley’s famous UGA football squad. Though he had been mocked by rivals during the campaign for his less-than-stellar track record on the field compared to his father, tonight he had forced the first game of his political career into overtime.

Democrats had settled their nominees for Senate and governor, while Republicans were now bracing for a final sprint to decide their candidates on June 16.

Four weeks left on the clock. Here we go.

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Maine Senate: Corner of the Country, Center of the Battleground

2026-05-21T18:30:00+00:00

Maine should be Democrats’ best pickup opportunity on a difficult Senate map. The only state to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 that is represented by a Republican, Maine is a critical part of the Democratic path back to the majority.

But standing in their way is an immovable force that has beguiled the party for decades: Republican Susan Collins.

Since winning her first race in 1996 and claiming the mantle of trailblazing Maine Sen. Margaret Chase Smith, Collins has bulldozed her way to re-election cycle after cycle, despite Democrats recruiting a variety of well-credentialed and well-funded candidates…

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Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

2026-05-21T18:29:00+00:00

New Jersey’s 7th District. GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has not been seen in public or private for more than two months as he deals with an unspecified medical condition. Kean’s staff insists that the congressman will be back to work shortly and continues to send out communications in his name, but there’s no indication of when he will actually return or where he currently is. While Democrats have a competitive primary to sort through, Republicans need their candidate to be present and on the trail in order to hold this swing seat. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.

Pennsylvania’s…

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Georgia Results: Primary Voters Narrow Their Choices

2026-05-20T15:49:00+00:00
By Nicholas Demba
In battleground Georgia, many marquee races of the night proceeded to runoffs to be decided on June 16. While the Peach State is not set to host any competitive House races this fall and any post-Callais redistricting will not take effect until 2028, primary voters selected nominees in a handful of safe open seats as well as a slate of competitive statewide races.

Another major story took place downballot as Democrat-aligned candidates Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan lost their bids to unseat two sitting Republican-appointed Supreme Court Justices. The officially nonpartisan races, in which both Rankin and Jordan emphasized their support for abortion rights and were bolstered by superior party turnout, resembled an attempt to replicate the party’s recent successes in Wisconsin. However, even with more voters pulling a Democratic ballot in the primary, Rankin and Jordan fell short.

Senate. Jon Ossoff (D), elected 2020 (51%). In the GOP primary, Rep. Mike Collins finished first with 40 percent and will advance to the runoff while former Tennessee Volunteers football coach Derek Dooley (30 percent) notched the second spot over Rep. Buddy Carter (25 percent). The winner will face Ossoff in November in one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. Dooley leaned on the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp and support from the Atlanta metro region to advance. All three candidates have privately lobbied Trump for his endorsement, though he has declined to endorse in the contest so far. While Republicans started this cycle with high hopes to unseat Ossoff, Kemp’s decision not to run combined with a messy primary now set to extend for another four weeks has diminished the GOP’s chances. Additionally, Ossoff has amassed a sizable war chest for the general election with over $32 million dollars in cash on hand. Tossup.

Governor. Open; Brian Kemp (R), term-limited. In the race for governor, both sides hosted competitive primaries. On the GOP side, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38 percent) and health care executive Rick Jackson (33 percent) advanced to a runoff. Though Jones had been the initial frontrunner, Jackson jolted this race with his unexpected entry in February, and the billionaire has since spent more than $80 million of his own money on the campaign. The result was the second time in a row President Trump has failed to clear the field for his preferred gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, after Kemp soundly defeated former Sen. David Perdue four years ago. With the third and fourth place candidates, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (15 percent) and state Attorney General Chris Carr (12 percent), hailing from the more establishment wing of the party, Jones faces the tough task of cobbling together a winning coalition in June. The next four weeks of this race are likely to be a continued slugfest between the two rivals.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary saw former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms successfully avoid a runoff, notching 56 percent of the vote, far ahead of her closest competitors. Her win was driven by a strong showing in Atlanta proper and with Black voters. While Bottoms is likely to face attacks around her tenure as mayor and decision not to run for a second term, Democrats are hoping that infighting on the Republican side and a favorable national environment will allow them to flip the governor’s mansion for the first time in 28 years. Tilt Republican.

1st District (Coastal Georgia) Open; Buddy Carter, R, running for Senate. Trump 58%. Insurance executive Jim Kingston avoided a runoff in the Republican primary, clinching 52 percent of the vote. His father, Jack Kingston, represented coastal Georgia for 22 years. The younger Kingston’s campaign was buoyed by an endorsement from President Trump in April. He will be the heavy favorite in November to replace Carter. Solid Republican.

9th District (Northeastern Georgia and northeastern Atlanta exurbs) Andrew Clyde, R, re-elected 69%. Trump 67%. Republican Rep. Andrew Clyde (75 percent) fended off a challenge from Gainesville mayor Sam Couvillon (13 percent). Hall County Commissioner Greg Poole finished in third with 12 percent. Couvillon had outraised Clyde and targeted him for the lack of money he brought home to the district. Still, Clyde’s incumbency and the backing of President Trump was more than enough to avoid a runoff. Solid Republican.

10th District (Eastern Atlanta exurbs and Athens) Open; Mike Collins, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. GOP voters nominated State Rep. Houston Gaines in the race to replace Rep. Mike Collins with 67 percent of the vote. He defeated film executive Ryan Millsap (18 percent), who self-funded his campaign. Gaines was the candidate to beat and further solidified his advantage with an endorsement from President Trump. Solid Republican.

11th District (Northwestern Atlanta suburbs and exurbs) Open; Barry Loudermilk, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 61%. Surgeon John Cowan (43 percent) and former congressional aide Rob Adkerson (22 percent) secured two runoff slots as they vie to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk. Whoever wins the runoff should be a lock to hold this seat in November. Solid Republican.

13th District (Western and southern Atlanta suburbs) Vacant following the death of David Scott, D. Harris 71%. What was set to be one of the Democratic primaries this year centering on generational change was flipped on its head after Rep. David Scott passed away on April 22. Scott had been facing a crowded field of challengers focusing the race on his advanced age and declining health. Now in an open seat race, state Rep. Jasmine Clark finished well ahead with 56 percent.. The separate special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the year will be held on July 28. Marcye Scott, the late Representative’s daughter, is among those running. Clark is not running in the special election. Solid Democratic.

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Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

2026-05-20T13:47:00+00:00

Alabama Senate. The race to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville is headed to overtime after no candidate received a majority of the vote. Rep. Barry Moore had Trump’s endorsement and backing from the Club for Growth but finished with around 40 percent. Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson and state Attorney General Steve Marshall are locked in an unsettled battle for a second spot in the June 16 runoff. Hudson had 26 percent of the vote to Marshall’s 25 percent with most of the votes counted, but the race is not yet called. Democrats Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett will head to a runoff. Solid Republican.

Alabama’s 1st. Alabama’s congressional map is in a state of flux. The state says it is now using a map drawn in 2023 that includes just one Black-plurality district instead of the map it used in 2024, which contained two such districts. The state voided the primary election in the three affected districts. But the court that previously struck down the 2023 map has said it will still hold a hearing later this week to determine which map the state will ultimately be required to use. The upshot is that tonight’s GOP primary results in the open 1st District won’t count, but there’s a chance that the same candidates will face off against each other in an August special primary — potentially under the same lines as in 2024. Solid Republican.

Kentucky Senate. Rep. Andy Barr easily pushed past former state attorney general Daniel Cameron, 61-31 percent, after securing an endorsement from President Donald Trump a few weeks ago. Cameron had entered the race with high name ID and a polling advantage but Barr’s fundraising strength and energetic campaign pulled him into a tie with Cameron by springtime. Trump’s intervention — endorsing Barr and pushing the third credible candidate, Nate Morris, out of the race — sealed the deal for the Lexington congressman. Democrats nominated former state Rep. Charles Booker for a second time. He lost handily to Sen. Rand Paul four years ago. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 4th. Rep. Thomas Massie is no stranger to breaks from party orthodoxy. But his vote against the president’s reconciliation bill last year and his push to force the Justice Department to release its documents on Jeffrey Epstein was too much for Trump. The president’s team recruited former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein to run against Massie and directed his political allies to spend tens of millions of dollars on Gallrein’s behalf. Massie couldn’t hold on, losing to Gallrein, 55-45 percent. The result is the latest flex of Trump’s continued hold over the GOP. He’s now helped topple two GOP incumbents, Massie and Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, and his refusal to endorse a third, Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw, likely contributed to his defeat as well. Even as the president’s standing among the American people continues to explore new lows, his strength within the GOP is unparalleled. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 6th. This district could emerge on the House battleground if the political environment continues to worsen for Republicans. Right now, Ralph Alvarado is the heavy favorite to win the general election after dispatching state Rep. Ryan Dotson in the GOP primary, 57-26 percent. Alvarado was endorsed by Trump. But Democrats are also eager to contest the seat. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo emerged victorious in that primary with 40 percent over state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson (32 percent). Solid Republican.

Oregon Governor. Former state House minority leader Christine Drazan won the GOP primary with 43 percent over Ed Diehl (32 percent) and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (16 percent) and others. Drazan lost a competitive race to Kotek by 3 points in 2022 and Dudley lost a gubernatorial race by 1.5 points in 2010. Even though Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982, Kotek’s unpopularity is giving the GOP some hope.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Bob Harvie won the Democratic nomination 65-35 percent over Lucia Simonelli and will face GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the general election. Fitzpatrick had a whopping $7.3 million to $604,000 cash advantage on April 29, but the suburban Philadelphia district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 and the political environment is much worse for the GOP. Lean Republican.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District. Chris Rabb (44 percent) defeated Sharif Street (30 percent) and Dr. Ala Stanford (24 percent) to win the Democratic nomination. That’s critical in the race to replace Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans in the Philadelphia seat where Harris received 88 percent. Rabb was the progressive choice in the race and had endorsements from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Democratic Socialists of America. Solid Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s 7th. National Democrats waded into this contentious primary a few weeks ago when the DCCC anointed firefighter Bob Brooks as its preferred candidate over Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and former energy executive Carol Obando-Derstine. That ruffled a few feathers but ultimately Brooks prevailed with 42 percent, boosted along the way by endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is a top Democratic target this fall. Toss-up.

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Podcast Episode 71: Which Nebraska Republicans Might Lose? w/ Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner

2026-05-15T18:52:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner take a fresh look at the Senate race in the Cornhusker State, where Democrats are rallying behind independent candidate Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Osborn came up short in 2024, but the conditions might be right for an upset in 2026. Nathan, Jacob and Aaron also talk about the competitive race for the Omaha-based 2nd District, where Republicans are trying to hold on with GOP Rep. Don Bacon not seeking re-election. There’s also plenty of talk about the best free bread in America, a delicious place to eat in Omaha and the upcoming Star Wars movie.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Podcast Episode 70: O-H I-O primaries w/ Henry J. Gomez of NBC News

2026-04-28T20:57:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Henry J. Gomez of NBC News break down all of the upcoming primaries in Ohio. The trio also analyzes whether incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur, Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes or Republicans representatives Max Miller and Mike Turner will be returning to Congress, takes an early look at the huge Senate race between GOP Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, and talks about whether Democrats really have a shot of winning the race for governor.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): Democratic Majority Within Reach

2026-04-23T18:30:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Just a few months ago, Republican strategists expressed optimism about their party’s midterm fortunes. Despite President Donald Trump's mediocre job approval rating, gas prices were falling, the stock market was surging and tax refunds were imminent. Republicans felt like they had time to turn things around before November. But the president’s war with Iran has at least stalled that momentum, Election Day creeps closer and there’s considerable doubt that Republicans can reassemble the 2024 Trump coalition.

By this point in his first term Trump’s job rating had taken a modest turn for the…
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2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): Alabama - Kansas

2026-04-23T18:29:00+00:00

Alabama. Open; Tommy Tuberville (R) running for governor. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16. State Attorney General Steve Marshall led in GOP primary polling all of last year and early in 2026 but Rep. Barry Moore has powered ahead of him in recent weeks. That’s all thanks to an endorsement from Trump and nearly $9 million in supportive paid media from a cryptocurrency super PAC, the Club for Growth, and his own campaign. Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson is also running a credible campaign and has a super PAC spending on his behalf. Wholesale fuel retailer Rodney Walker…
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2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): Kentucky - New Mexico

2026-04-23T18:28:00+00:00

Kentucky. Open; Mitch McConnell (R), not seeking re-election. Primary May 19. Rep. Andy Barr appears to be gaining ground in the GOP primary as spending has picked up over the past two months. Barr has a friendly super PAC and millions of dollars saved up in his campaign account, and one Kentucky GOP source said he “is working the hardest on the trail.” Former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron was the polling frontrunner for all of last year but has struggled to fundraise and local GOP sources say he’s coasting on his name ID as a longtime statewide elected official.…
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2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): North Carolina - Wyoming

2026-04-23T18:27:00+00:00

North Carolina. Open; Thom Tillis (R) not seeking re-election. The race is set between Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and state GOP. Cooper starts with a polling advantage over Whatley, who has never run for office before and isn’t well-known in the state. Cooper, who has won six statewide campaigns since 2000, is the strongest Democratic candidate the party could hope for and has already stockpiled $18 million as of March 31, compared to $2.5 million for Whatley. But any Democrat has a low ceiling in the evenly…
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Podcast Episode 69: Redistricting War Hits Virginia w/ Randi B. Hagi of WMRA

2026-04-17T17:34:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Randi B. Hagi of WMRA Public Radio in Harrisonburg, Va. tackle the latest in the nationwide redistricting war. They analyze whether the Virginia referendum will pass, which Republican incumbents could be at risk of losing re-election from the Democratic-drawn map and how a new Virginia map will affect the overall fight for the House majority. In addition, Jacob is part-way through a new spy novel while Nathan has too many questions about Randi’s roller derby hobby.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Podcast Episode 68: Best Campaign Ad Draft w/ Erin Covey and Kirk Bado

2026-04-06T20:17:00+00:00

Jacob Rubashkin, Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Kirk Bado of National Journal’s Hotline draft the best and most iconic campaign ads of the 21st century. It’s spring break, so the crew also discusses their ideal vacation destinations, and some good books and articles they’ve read recently.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Alaska Senate: Democrats Reach Into The Red

2026-03-26T18:30:00+00:00

The first Alaska Native to represent the Last Frontier in Congress could be the final piece for a Democratic Senate majority this fall.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to run for Senate rather than governor — a race she might have dominated wire to wire — puts this race in contention for Democrats, who now have a proven fundraiser who’s shown she can win an elusive state with a cross-partisan coalition.

GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who fended off a well-funded challenger in 2020, is less of a household name than his headline-grabbing colleague Lisa Murkowski. That will have to change…
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Ohio Senate: Can Husted Hold On?

2026-03-26T18:29:00+00:00

Ohio may have fallen out of the conversation as a presidential bellwether state. But it remains a critical piece of the Senate battleground, and the outcome of its 2026 race could determine majority control next year.

Sen. Jon Husted, appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine following the election of JD Vance as vice president, has been thrust onto the biggest stage of his political career. A lifelong Ohioan who dreamed of becoming governor, Husted now must contend with a midterm environment and unpopular Republican president, while also introducing himself to voters who weren’t familiar with him as lieutenant governor or secretary…
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Podcast Episode 67: Democrats Favored to Win House Majority w/ Mel McIntire of Roll Call

2026-03-20T16:31:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Mary Ellen McIntire of Roll Call analyze the fight for the House majority including a dozen recent race rating changes by Inside Elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the November general election and are favored to take control from Republicans. Mel also reveals her favorite Easter candy, Jacob has another favorite book, and Nathan recommends yet another band that Jacob has never heard of.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Illinois Primary Results: Democrats Nominate Likely New Members

2026-03-18T16:36:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
Voters in Illinois headed to the polls Tuesday to choose their nominees for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Dick Durbin and a slew of open House seats. Both the Senate seat and the four open House districts are rated Solid Democratic, so the winners of the Democratic primaries will almost certainly be in Congress next year.

All of the races saw significant spending from outside groups, most notably from a network of super PACs aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-cryptocurrency group Fairshake, and the pro-AI group Leading the Future, which combined to spend at least $35 million on advertising.

Senate.
Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton completed a stunning come-from-behind victory over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Democratic primary, winning 40-33 percent and clearing her path to becoming the fifth Black woman elected to the Senate. Krishnamoorthi outspent Stratton nearly 10-to-1; his TV ads, which began last year, gave him an early polling lead which he did not give up until mid-February, when a pro-Stratton super PAC funded by Gov. JB Pritzker began advertising on her behalf. A $10 million anti-Stratton push from cryptocurrency group Fairshake couldn’t blunt her momentum. Rep. Robin Kelly finished third with 18 percent. Republicans nominated former state party chairman Don Tracy. Solid Democratic.

2nd District.
Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller won a comfortable 40-29 percent victory over former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly. Miller was backed by millions of dollars in advertising from a group tied to pro-Israel AIPAC, while Jackson, who previously held this seat before resigning and serving federal prison time, was back by pro-cryptocurrency and pro-AI interests. State Sen. Robert Peters was endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders but placed a distant third with 12 percent. Solid Democratic.

7th District.
Retiring Rep. Danny Davis saw his chosen successor across the finish line as state Rep. La Shawn Ford narrowly outpaced Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, 24-21 percent, in the Democratic primary. Conyears-Ervin had benefitted from spending by groups tied to AIPAC, while Ford weathered attacks from a pro-crypocurrency group. Union leader Anthony Driver Jr. placed third with 11 percent, while progressive Kina Collins, who nearly defeated Davis in the 2022 primary, came in fourth with 10 percent. Solid Democratic.

8th District.
Former Rep. Melissa Bean, whose vote for the Affordable Care Act cost her this seat more than a decade ago, won her comeback bid with 32 percent against a fractured field. Her closest competitor, tech entrepreneur Junaid Ahmed, was backed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and a slew of progressive organizations but couldn’t fully consolidate the left lane of the primary and finished with 27 percent. Veteran Dan Tully won 12 percent, while five other candidates finished in the single digits. Bean was supported by spending from PACs aligned with AIPAC, cryptocurrency interests, and pro-AI groups. Solid Democratic.

9th District.
Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the Democratic nomination with 29 percent of the vote. The result itself was unremarkable — Biss runs the district’s most populous city and had an endorsement from outgoing Rep. Jan Schakowsky — but the race was anything but. AIPAC-aligned groups spent millions of dollars boosting state Sen. Laura Fine, whose position on Israel they preferred to Biss’s, who is himself the son of an Israeli immigrant. The AIPAC-aligned groups also spent money attacking a third candidate, journalist Kat Abughazaleh, who was the candidate most critical of Israel. Abughazaleh finished in second with 26 percent, while Fine won 20 percent. Progressive Bushra Amiwala, a Skokie Board of Education member, finished in sixth with 5 percent — pro-Israel groups launched a last-minute attempt to highlight her candidacy in an effort to siphon progressive votes from Biss and Abughazaleh. Solid Democratic.

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House Overview: Democrats Favored to Win the Majority

2026-03-12T18:30:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With less than eight months to go, the Republican House majority is at considerable risk.

Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job rating and consistent Democratic overperformance in races around the country point to Democrats gaining at least the three seats they need to flip the House.

Republican optimism rooted in an improving economy hit a snag with the war with Iran. There’s no evidence Trump has even started an upward climb, even though there’s technically time for his standing to improve. And even though the Democratic Party brand is very unpopular,…
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Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

2026-03-12T18:26:00+00:00

Arkansas Senate. Farmer Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary with 78 percent last week and will face GOP Sen. Tom Cotton (82 percent in the GOP primary). Lightning might need to strike three times for Shoffner to win, but Democrats have a credible candidate in place if that happens. Solid Republican.

Mississippi Senate. District Attorney Scott Colom won the Democratic primary on Tuesday with 73 percent and will take on GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (81 percent in her primary) in the general election. Colom is a long-shot, but some Democratic strategists talk about Mississippi as a cheaper takeover opportunity compared…
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